Political Information Social Service - Election Special

[Deleted]

Feb 24, 2022 8:35:12 GMT Dickie said:

In Boris we trust !

I dunno, he sounds a bit Russian

[Deleted]

You would think it possible to allow ukraine to man and operate a Nato airfield somwehere to land refuel and strike back from. They need a damn sight more help than they are getting and the reality is Putin will target other former Soviet states that are now in Nato at some point anyway.

[Deleted]

General opinion is that Putin has badly underestimated the response both from Ukraine and (most) of the rest of the world. The fact that two of his supporters are the mad bastards in charge of Brazil and Belarus says it all.
The problem for us all is that in painting him into a corner, he is perfectly capable of lashing out indiscriminately, in which case global warming could be replaced by a nuclear winter.
Above, you have to feel sorry for those caught in the middle of it all.

[Deleted]

Mar 1, 2022 19:10:30 GMT @61666 said:

General opinion is that Putin has badly underestimated the response both from Ukraine and (most) of the rest of the world. The fact that two of his supporters are the mad bastards in charge of Brazil and Belarus says it all.
The problem for us all is that in painting him into a corner, he is perfectly capable of lashing out indiscriminately, in which case global warming could be replaced by a nuclear winter.
Above, you have to feel sorry for those caught in the middle of it all.

A nuclear winter,the covid virus wiping out man and then the apes take over. That'd make a good film

[Deleted]

Don't we already have a blond gorilla in charge?

[Deleted]

So, Russia says the West doesn't listen.
If the Russian way of life is so wonderful, why have a million people already sought refuge in the West?
If the Russian way is so wonderful, why are they afraid to acknowledge what the rest of the world (Belarus, North Korea, Yemen and Eritrea excepted), are saying what is going on there?
Pay attention, Russia. We don't give a shit what you do, as long as you leave the rest of us alone, though maybe if you allowed your media to be impartial, maybe the ordinary people would see what a lying bunch of megalomaniacs are in charge and perhaps do something about them.
Bastards.

[Deleted]

Perhaps Putin is after a Nobel peace prize after all Stalin was twice nominated and he killed 7 million of his own people.

[Deleted]

Well, Gavin Williamson has been given a knighthood for the complete bollix he made of education during Covid, so on that basis, Putin will fancy his chances.

[Deleted]

An interesting analysis of the situation, especially from the point of view of the apparent absence of most of the Russian air force so far:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGcfkqzUI4

[Deleted]

Mar 3, 2022 20:42:27 GMT @61666 said:

Well, Gavin Williamson has been given a knighthood for the complete bollix he made of education during Covid, so on that basis, Putin will fancy his chances.

The 'don't whistleblow' knighthood.

Pathetic. We give knighthood for being useless traitors now...

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2022 2:58:01 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

An interesting analysis of the situation, especially from the point of view of the apparent absence of most of the Russian air force so far:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WGcfkqzUI4

Interesting. Seems fairly open minded and suggests what we have been hearing elsewhere - for all the war games beforehand, the Russian attacks seem badly coordinated and/or they just expected Ukraine to fold inside a couple of days.
The idea that Europe now will witness a long, attritional war on its doorstep is just beyond appalling and much as you admire the fight Ukraine is showing, the West is happy to supply it with aid - in effect to do all the dirty work. We know why of course, because the West does not want to be drawn into a wider conflict along NATO borders, never mind the underlying nuclear threat.
Meanwhile, Russians continue to believe what their government tells them, because there is no free reporting and you get arrested and beaten up for suggesting otherwise.
If Putin was somehow taken out ( presumably it is well nigh impossible to shoot the fucker), you wonder what the level below might throw up and would it be any better? Russian history suggests they have always been vulnerable to being led by a dictator of one sort or another.
Barely a day goes by without me reflecting on the accident of my birth that landed me in the world where and when it did. Life ain't perfect, but it sure as hell is better than many places or times I can think of...

[Deleted]

I sure as hell tells you everything you need to know about Boris that the only good thing I can think of to say about him is he's not Putin.

[Deleted]

What interested me most were two things: 1) the consensus that the Russians didn't plan very well, and, in as much as they did plan, they got it almost completely wrong, as they believed their own propaganda and totally underestimated the level of resistance the Ukrainians would put up. And 2), the frequent comments about the poor quality of Russian armaments, lack of support, logistics, etc - even with their high-tech stuff.

For years I've been banging on about how 'small' a country Russia really is, and that it can't realistically afford the size of armed forces it has, so I was very interested in the second point. The problem we have with Russia is twofold: firstly that it is such a huge country physically, so we are hypnotised into thinking it is also huge economically, and secondly, we constantly equate Russia with the USSR. Both are untrue and very misleading.

Russia is not the old USSR, it is economically a much smaller, less powerful entity. It is treated as a world power because of history (eg it retains the USSR's Security Council seat on the UN), and because it inherited a vast arsenal of nuclear weapons, but really it isn't. Despite its size, its economy (GDP) is actually smaller than Italy, Canada or South Korea. It is ranked 11th in the world by the IMF (we are 5th, with nearly twice the GDP) and 5th in Europe, below us, Germany, France, and Italy. It has almost exactly the same GDP as Brazil. Imagine Italy or Brazil trying to maintain armed forces the size of Russia's and you realise just how unstable and fragile their situation is. Looked at by GDP per capita, the situation is even more bizarre - Russia is 57th in the world (below Hungary, Latvia and Kazakhstan). This can be misleading, as the countries with small populations tend to do better, but, for comparison, the US is 13th, we are 26th, and Italy is 30th. Russia has about the same GDP per person as Croatia or Chile.

Depending on how you do the maths, Russia has somewhere between the 2nd and 5th largest/most powerful military in the world. So, how is it even possible that the 57th richest country in the world can maintain the 2nd largest armed forces? The answer is simple - it can't. It only manages by sucking money out of the rest of the economy and by spending as little as possible on equipment, maintenance, etc. It is no accident that Russian armoured vehicles break down so often, or that their tanks run out of fuel. And, according to the experts in that video, it's highly likely that they have deliberately kept their best aircraft in their bases because they daren't risk using them unless they really have to.

Add into the equation that the Russian armed forces (especially the army) is largely made up of unwilling conscripts, and has a terrible reputation for the way it treats those conscripts, and you have, not a huge military, scaring the bejabbers out of everyone, but an ineffective mess, creaking at the seams, and a potential disaster just waiting to happen.

And if you then think through the current situation - how is Russia going to replace the equipment it is losing in this invasion (not just tanks, etc destroyed, but things like bombs, missiles and drones all cost money)? And how is it going to be able to afford to run an occupied Ukraine? This would be bad enough normally, but with the current level of sanctions, it becomes nigh on impossible.

The USSR had much the same problem (although with a much higher GDP), and ultimately collapsed because it couldn't afford such an enormous military expenditure, and feed its people and run the economy. Trying to match the US's expenditure on Reagan's 'Star Wars' programme was the final straw.

I suspect, invading Ukraine may amount to much the same thing for Russia and Putin's regime. The final collapse will be different, and perhaps not so quick, because the political and economic structures of the USSR and modern-day Russia are different (Putin has a much stronger power base than any USSR leader had - there are no 'men in dark suits' hovering in the background), and it might be a lot messier (Putin could be more likely to decide to go out with a (very) big bang), but the logic of the situation is the same. It is ultimately unsustainable.

[Deleted]

So basically, of it wasn't for the nukes, there would almost certainly be a no fly zone over Ukraine.
Certainly, when you think about Desert Storm, the US and UK, pretty much destroyed Saddam's forces from the air inside a couple of days and the rest was (fairly) simple. The fact that Russia hasn't done this to Ukraine strongly suggests the limitations of their forces.
Meanwhile, if we lived in Russia, posts like this could result in 15 years in jail.
Astonishing.

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2022 13:17:49 GMT @61666 said:

So basically, of it wasn't for the nukes, there would almost certainly be a no fly zone over Ukraine.
Certainly, when you think about Desert Storm, the US and UK, pretty much destroyed Saddam's forces from the air inside a couple of days and the rest was (fairly) simple. The fact that Russia hasn't done this to Ukraine strongly suggests the limitations of their forces.
Meanwhile, if we lived in Russia, posts like this could result in 15 years in jail.
Astonishing.

Give him time. Johnson is 15-20 years behind Putin. They are outlawing shouting at protests. It's a start. Honestly, u are so impatient for the good stuff