Political Information Social Service - Election Special

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From today's Guardian (look away now, Oxford):

"What the country faces now is essentially a race between vaccination and infection: can we protect people faster than the virus spreads as restrictions are eased? This was always going to be a balancing act. The UK vaccination strategy of prioritising the most vulnerable people and moving down the age groups is intended to save lives first and slow transmission second. This means that as the country unlocks, infections are likely to rise, primarily in younger people who have more social contacts and have not yet been vaccinated."

"Dr Anne Cori of Imperial College London, who is modelling the coronavirus outbreak, said what happens in the coming weeks is uncertain, but with the dominant Kent variant so transmissible, we can expect the epidemic to grow as Britain comes out of lockdown."

"All the modelling has highlighted the importance of reaching high vaccine coverage before relaxing restrictions, she said, “to keep this ‘third wave’ to a minimal level.” If a slow down in vaccine rollout is not countered by slower relaxation, we can expect more hospitalisations and deaths. Imperial modelling suggests the UK can expect a further 30,000 coronavirus deaths by next June."

These are selected quotes - read the article in full here: www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/22/can-the-uk-avoid-a-third-wave-of-covid.

[Deleted]

Don't it make you proud to be british

inews.co.uk/news/politics/genocide-amendment-mps-vote-against-protections-trade-bill-925752?ITO=newsnow

I'm off to wear a protest shirt under my jumper and glare at some statues

[Deleted]

Seems to me we are in a conflicting phase where a degree of scaremongering is being used to temper people's hopes of greater freedom - and quite right too, given what we have seen of public behaviour in the past.
At the moment, there appears to be hope that the vaccines, combined with lockdown, have got a lid on cases to around 5000 a day. While still not great, the drastic reduction in both deaths and hospitalisations is certainly a positive.
With half the adult population now vaccinated, the group at biggest risk would appear to be those in their 40s, as it seems they can still be hospitalised, while the youngest can still get it, spread, but are less likely to be seriously ill. Equally, there must now be a significant portion of folk who have had Covid and therefore also have a degree of immunity.
So, where does that leave us?
IF people could be trusted to be sensible, we could probably ease lockdown now, but we can't, so for once the government is right to take small steps and monitor progress in between. Let people loose and enough will go mad enough to spoil it for everyone. Indeed, Bristol rioters, Rangers supporters and some women protesting against violence prove that.
It will be nice to go somewhere less local from Monday and nicer still to sit at outdoor tables and get a haircut from 12th April. Less sure about being dragged round the shops by the wife, but if I can sit outside with a coffee that will help.
It would be SO nice to go to the Med, but will happily put that off for a year, with so many places to visit in Blighty. Trading foreign travel to get on top of the virus is a small price to pay. Likewise masks and social distancing, which certainly seem to have limited colds and flu this year. Indeed, having a cold keeps Covid at bay according to latest research. Mmm...

[Deleted]

Vaccination doesn't prevent catching Covid (I heard yesterday), it just makes it less severe. Which suggests we vaccinatees can still pass it on. Reading the Majorca Daily Bulletin yesterday, I discover that Germans are allowed to fly there on holiday, but can't travel to eg Lower Saxony in their own country. That is real commitment to getting towels on deckchairs first!

[Deleted]

I heard an ICU doctor being interviewed the other day, and he said that the age of most people on ventilators now is in the 50s. This was quite a shock, but, if you think about it, with over-60s being mostly vaccinated and not tending to be that active socially (and mostly retired), it makes sense. People in their 50s are now probably the most vulnerable group of the not yet vaccinated.

As for the lockdown - the message coming clearly from HMG is that it's going to be relaxed 'on time' come what may. This isn't the official line, of course, but it's clear that de Pfeffe is under too much pressure from his back-benchers and business mates to "follow the science", as he promised.

And what of that science? Well, death rates are thankfully right down, but the infection rate seems to have 'plateaued' (government-speak for ‘ahem, actually going up a bit, don’t you know”). And the number in hospital, although much lower, is still pretty much where it was when the first lock-down was called - rather hastily, because it was thought that the NHS wouldn't be able to cope if it got any worse.

It's an undisputed fact that the infection rate will go up when the lockdown is eased, and may even do so rapidly enough to cause a 'third wave’, if not enough under-60s have been vaccinated (and what will a totally shagged-out NHS think of that?). So, if de Pfeffe was "listening to the science", he would be considering delaying the relaxation of the lockdown for a few weeks until the vaccination situation is clearer, and enough under-60s have been vaccinated to prevent a ‘third wave’.

Will he have the Churchilian guts to do that?

Watch this space...

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2021 14:56:27 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

I heard an ICU doctor being interviewed the other day, and he said that the age of most people on ventilators now is in the 50s. This was quite a shock, but, if you think about it, with over-60s being mostly vaccinated and not tending to be that active socially (and mostly retired), it makes sense. People in their 50s are now probably the most vulnerable group of the not yet vaccinated.

As for the lockdown - the message coming clearly from HMG is that it's going to be relaxed 'on time' come what may. This isn't the official line, of course, but it's clear that de Pfeffe is under too much pressure from his back-benchers and business mates to "follow the science", as he promised.

And what of that science? Well, death rates are thankfully right down, but the infection rate seems to have 'plateaued' (government-speak for ‘ahem, actually going up a bit, don’t you know”). And the number in hospital, although much lower, is still pretty much where it was when the first lock-down was called - rather hastily, because it was thought that the NHS wouldn't be able to cope if it got any worse.

It's an undisputed fact that the infection rate will go up when the lockdown is eased, and may even do so rapidly enough to cause a 'third wave’, if not enough under-60s have been vaccinated (and what will a totally shagged-out NHS think of that?). So, if de Pfeffe was "listening to the science", he would be considering delaying the relaxation of the lockdown for a few weeks until the vaccination situation is clearer, and enough under-60s have been vaccinated to prevent a ‘third wave’.

Will he have the Churchilian guts to do that?

Watch this space...

I can't believe I actually wasted the time it took to read that garbage. The clear message from the government is that easing of restrictions will take as long as it needs, not that the dates are set in stone. The infection rate has plateaued but is not creeping up. Some days it's above the weekly average but week on week it's still going down all be it slowly.

I've no time for Boris, but Christ you lefties don't half twist information to fit your own agenda.

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2021 19:02:52 GMT daveu said:

Mar 23, 2021 14:56:27 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

I heard an ICU doctor being interviewed the other day, and he said that the age of most people on ventilators now is in the 50s. This was quite a shock, but, if you think about it, with over-60s being mostly vaccinated and not tending to be that active socially (and mostly retired), it makes sense. People in their 50s are now probably the most vulnerable group of the not yet vaccinated.

As for the lockdown - the message coming clearly from HMG is that it's going to be relaxed 'on time' come what may. This isn't the official line, of course, but it's clear that de Pfeffe is under too much pressure from his back-benchers and business mates to "follow the science", as he promised.

And what of that science? Well, death rates are thankfully right down, but the infection rate seems to have 'plateaued' (government-speak for ‘ahem, actually going up a bit, don’t you know”). And the number in hospital, although much lower, is still pretty much where it was when the first lock-down was called - rather hastily, because it was thought that the NHS wouldn't be able to cope if it got any worse.

It's an undisputed fact that the infection rate will go up when the lockdown is eased, and may even do so rapidly enough to cause a 'third wave’, if not enough under-60s have been vaccinated (and what will a totally shagged-out NHS think of that?). So, if de Pfeffe was "listening to the science", he would be considering delaying the relaxation of the lockdown for a few weeks until the vaccination situation is clearer, and enough under-60s have been vaccinated to prevent a ‘third wave’.

Will he have the Churchilian guts to do that?

Watch this space...

I can't believe I actually wasted the time it took to read that garbage. The clear message from the government is that easing of restrictions will take as long as it needs, not that the dates are set in stone. The infection rate has plateaued but is not creeping up. Some days it's above the weekly average but week on week it's still going down all be it slowly.

I've no time for Boris, but Christ you lefties don't half twist information to fit your own agenda.

Now you’ve done it 🤭

[Deleted]

A good article on what I have been preaching for the last year on how an island nation can protect itself from CCPvirus

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/24/how-taiwan-triumphed-over-covid-as-uk-faltered

[Deleted]

Interesting and salutory. As an island nation, we ought to have done better and at the risk of introducing the Brexit analogy, the idea of pulling up the drawbridge is arguably one that should have been more attractive.
Despite all the knowledge of what works (and what doesn't), there still seems to be a global reluctance to come up with a blueprint of how to cope better in future. Our own government persists in saying 'not now' for a national inquiry into Covid - but if not now, then when is a good time? These things take months, years even, yet if we are to learn, then there surely has to be a more concerted approach, based on what has worked well and avoiding past mistakes.
Currently, we seem to be betting everything on the vaccines, together with the blunt instrument that is lockdown. Yet, for example, thousands of truckers come in and out of the country daily, with similar numbers of business travellers by air. Is it all really necessary? For example, what is wrong with truckers coming no further than the ports, on both sides of the Channel, with 'home' drivers and tractor units taking over from there?
No doubt there are practical reasons, but the same goes for Irish freight that drives through Britain to France, rather than go direct by sea - something now starting to happen, with new services from Rosslare.
While there are signs of creative thinking taking place in isolation, it seems the global economy is reluctant to change the status quo, but there is nothing to stop the UK doing its own thing and weren't we told that was one of the key benefits of Brexit? Feel sure there must be many small, easily applied changes that could keep us safer, but get a feeling that the government is reluctant to go down this route for fear of public outcry when an inquiry shows just how badly they fucked up. The vaccine roll out saves us all and in a year's time it will all be forgotten. Yeh, right...

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2021 19:02:52 GMT daveu said:

Mar 23, 2021 14:56:27 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

I heard an ICU doctor being interviewed the other day, and he said that the age of most people on ventilators now is in the 50s. This was quite a shock, but, if you think about it, with over-60s being mostly vaccinated and not tending to be that active socially (and mostly retired), it makes sense. People in their 50s are now probably the most vulnerable group of the not yet vaccinated.

As for the lockdown - the message coming clearly from HMG is that it's going to be relaxed 'on time' come what may. This isn't the official line, of course, but it's clear that de Pfeffe is under too much pressure from his back-benchers and business mates to "follow the science", as he promised.

And what of that science? Well, death rates are thankfully right down, but the infection rate seems to have 'plateaued' (government-speak for ‘ahem, actually going up a bit, don’t you know”). And the number in hospital, although much lower, is still pretty much where it was when the first lock-down was called - rather hastily, because it was thought that the NHS wouldn't be able to cope if it got any worse.

It's an undisputed fact that the infection rate will go up when the lockdown is eased, and may even do so rapidly enough to cause a 'third wave’, if not enough under-60s have been vaccinated (and what will a totally shagged-out NHS think of that?). So, if de Pfeffe was "listening to the science", he would be considering delaying the relaxation of the lockdown for a few weeks until the vaccination situation is clearer, and enough under-60s have been vaccinated to prevent a ‘third wave’.

Will he have the Churchilian guts to do that?

Watch this space...

I can't believe I actually wasted the time it took to read that garbage. The clear message from the government is that easing of restrictions will take as long as it needs, not that the dates are set in stone. The infection rate has plateaued but is not creeping up. Some days it's above the weekly average but week on week it's still going down all be it slowly.

I've no time for Boris, but Christ you lefties don't half twist information to fit your own agenda.

Yeah. Just a bit of flu innit?

The schools went back on the set day. My daughters year are all on isolation today.

[Deleted]

Mar 23, 2021 19:02:52 GMT daveu said:

Mar 23, 2021 14:56:27 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

I heard an ICU doctor being interviewed the other day, and he said that the age of most people on ventilators now is in the 50s. This was quite a shock, but, if you think about it, with over-60s being mostly vaccinated and not tending to be that active socially (and mostly retired), it makes sense. People in their 50s are now probably the most vulnerable group of the not yet vaccinated.

As for the lockdown - the message coming clearly from HMG is that it's going to be relaxed 'on time' come what may. This isn't the official line, of course, but it's clear that de Pfeffe is under too much pressure from his back-benchers and business mates to "follow the science", as he promised.

And what of that science? Well, death rates are thankfully right down, but the infection rate seems to have 'plateaued' (government-speak for ‘ahem, actually going up a bit, don’t you know”). And the number in hospital, although much lower, is still pretty much where it was when the first lock-down was called - rather hastily, because it was thought that the NHS wouldn't be able to cope if it got any worse.

It's an undisputed fact that the infection rate will go up when the lockdown is eased, and may even do so rapidly enough to cause a 'third wave’, if not enough under-60s have been vaccinated (and what will a totally shagged-out NHS think of that?). So, if de Pfeffe was "listening to the science", he would be considering delaying the relaxation of the lockdown for a few weeks until the vaccination situation is clearer, and enough under-60s have been vaccinated to prevent a ‘third wave’.

Will he have the Churchilian guts to do that?

Watch this space...

I can't believe I actually wasted the time it took to read that garbage. The clear message from the government is that easing of restrictions will take as long as it needs, not that the dates are set in stone. The infection rate has plateaued but is not creeping up. Some days it's above the weekly average but week on week it's still going down all be it slowly.

I've no time for Boris, but Christ you lefties don't half twist information to fit your own agenda.

Oh dear, those lefties again, eh? I don't have an 'agenda', I hope very much that the gamble succeeds, especially from a personal perspective. But it's just a discussion, Dave, not a war, I was just putting my view forward - a view based on what I hear/read and the facts of the situation, not on politics, or any 'agenda'. Certainly not worth getting in such a tizz about.

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2021 8:38:05 GMT @61666 said:

Interesting and salutory. As an island nation, we ought to have done better and at the risk of introducing the Brexit analogy, the idea of pulling up the drawbridge is arguably one that should have been more attractive.
Despite all the knowledge of what works (and what doesn't), there still seems to be a global reluctance to come up with a blueprint of how to cope better in future. Our own government persists in saying 'not now' for a national inquiry into Covid - but if not now, then when is a good time? These things take months, years even, yet if we are to learn, then there surely has to be a more concerted approach, based on what has worked well and avoiding past mistakes.
Currently, we seem to be betting everything on the vaccines, together with the blunt instrument that is lockdown. Yet, for example, thousands of truckers come in and out of the country daily, with similar numbers of business travellers by air. Is it all really necessary? For example, what is wrong with truckers coming no further than the ports, on both sides of the Channel, with 'home' drivers and tractor units taking over from there?
No doubt there are practical reasons, but the same goes for Irish freight that drives through Britain to France, rather than go direct by sea - something now starting to happen, with new services from Rosslare.
While there are signs of creative thinking taking place in isolation, it seems the global economy is reluctant to change the status quo, but there is nothing to stop the UK doing its own thing and weren't we told that was one of the key benefits of Brexit? Feel sure there must be many small, easily applied changes that could keep us safer, but get a feeling that the government is reluctant to go down this route for fear of public outcry when an inquiry shows just how badly they fucked up. The vaccine roll out saves us all and in a year's time it will all be forgotten. Yeh, right...

The key is in your last line. All that will be remembered is the success of the vaccinations.

This 'government' was elected to "get Brexit done" (ably assisted by Labour's death wish of selecting Corbyn as 'leader'). Johnson's only interest in the whole affair was getting to be PM (I honestly don't think he cares one way or the other about Brexit - or even really understands - or cares - about politics, he's just a single-minded opportunist). But, having achieved his aim, he then rewarded the people who got him there by putting them in power - so we now have just about the most right wing, loony, and totally incompetent 'government' ever seen.

In normal times this might not have mattered too much - lots of flags, asylum seekers getting an even worse deal, etc, etc, but, for most of us, only the after-effects of Brexit to worry about. But then came Covid. However, as you say, none of that astronomical cluster-f**k will matter, or even be remembered, if the vaccinations work and we 'beat' the virus.

Whatever I might think of Johnson, he got the most important thing right - concentrate on the vaccinations. Whilst Trump went down in flames, Johnson not only survived, but, if there is no 'third wave' and he manages to dodge the blame for the coming post-Brexit shit-storm, he will almost certainly win the next election. And will go down in (popular) history as the man who saved Britain from the Virus. As the French say - that's life.

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2021 8:38:05 GMT @61666 said:

While there are signs of creative thinking taking place in isolation, it seems the global economy is reluctant to change the status quo, but there is nothing to stop the UK doing its own thing and weren't we told that was one of the key benefits of Brexit? Feel sure there must be many small, easily applied changes that could keep us safer, but get a feeling that the government is reluctant to go down this route for fear of public outcry when an inquiry shows just how badly they fucked up. The vaccine roll out saves us all and in a year's time it will all be forgotten. Yeh, right...

Nothing to do with Brexit. You may recall 12 months ago Austria and others closing their borders unilaterally. Being a member of the EU does not remove sovereign control as much as the Daily Heil would have you believe otherwise.

[Deleted]

Whatever I might think of Johnson, he got the most important thing right - concentrate on the vaccinations. Whilst Trump went down in flames, Johnson not only survived, but, if there is no 'third wave' and he manages to dodge the blame for the coming post-Brexit shit-storm, he will almost certainly win the next election. And will go down in (popular) history as the man who saved Britain from the Virus. As the French say - that's life.
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Fear you may be right. About a hundred years ago, in the early 1980s, there was that grocer's daughter who became prime minister. A different sort of right wing loony, but just as Marmite. Towards the end of her first term, things weren't going that well, but then a diplomatic spat in the South Atlantic became the Falklands War and Thatcher was returned in the next election on a wave of patriotism. Never mind that the war could have, should have been avoided, the wider population have very short memories.
I think we mostly prosper in this country in spite of, rather than because of government policy. We are fortunate to have extraordinary and clever people in all levels of society who make up for the bastards and shitheads who also permeate each level too.
To get a bit of football in - Terry and Oliver over Jim Parminter any day.

[Deleted]

How could the Falklands War have been avoided? Oh yes, we could have got the SAS to assassinate the Argentinian president; Carlos Menem wasn't it, or was he their centre forward? Any road up, shouldn't the wishes of the Falkland Islanders have been paramount? On the plus side, my brother in law (a Royal Engineers musician and therefore a medic) managed to learn bridge on his cruise down to Ascension Island.