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Post by nws on Apr 21, 2014 19:10:39 GMT
Well we have something to play for. Has this ever been the case in seasons past?
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Post by oxfordinmaid on Apr 21, 2014 19:43:08 GMT
Well we have something to play for. Has this ever been the case in seasons past? You no that to be the case wasn't it the last game of the season we ended up in Div 4 play offs all them years ago !!!  |
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Post by nws on Apr 21, 2014 19:47:29 GMT
Indeed. Although some muppet put it about that Southend were losing and for twenty glorious minutes we thought we were up automatically
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Post by daveu on Apr 21, 2014 19:54:49 GMT
Hard pushed to think of a time in recent seasons when it wasn't the case. Was there a season in the Ryman Prem last time round when we were safe before the final game?
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Post by eclipse on Apr 21, 2014 20:13:43 GMT
Ok, so now all is clear for the final day. We need to beat Grays at home and need any 2 results from the following:
AFC Hornchurch vs Metropolitan Police - Draw or Away Win
Dulwich Hamlet vs Kingstonian - Away Win
Lowestoft Town vs Harrow Borough - Away win
Unlikely but you never know, if all results came in we would finish 4th!
Still Saturday will definitely be last home game of the season so lets give it a good go.
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Post by stonesfc1 on Apr 21, 2014 20:35:25 GMT
Hard pushed to think of a time in recent seasons when it wasn't the case. Was there a season in the Ryman Prem last time round when we were safe before the final game? I remember at least two seasons where we were safe before the final game, last game of the 08-09 season against billericay and the 09-10 season against kingstonian |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2014 20:38:49 GMT
Ok, so now all is clear for the final day. We need to beat Grays at home and need any 2 results from the following: AFC Hornchurch vs Metropolitan Police - Draw or Away Win Dulwich Hamlet vs Kingstonian - Away Win Lowestoft Town vs Harrow Borough - Away win Unlikely but you never know, if all results came in we would finish 4th! Still Saturday will definitely be last home game of the season so lets give it a good go. If we came 4th, a playoff final v the team in 5th would be at home. Odds on that happening...? |
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Post by eclipse on Apr 21, 2014 20:58:12 GMT
[/quote]If we came 4th, a playoff final v the team in 5th would be at home. Odds on that happening...?
[/quote]
Forgot about that possibility, maybe a 100/1 shot for another home game.
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Post by eclipse on Apr 22, 2014 8:27:35 GMT
Ok have worked out some rough probabilities now for those that like their maths!
Have assigned these % to each game:
Hornchurch lose or draw 50%
Dulwich lose 30%
Lowestoft lose 20%
Maidstone win 60 %
All 3 games go against us - 28%
Only 1 game goes for us - 47%
Now the interesting part
2 games go for us - 22%
All 3 games go for us 3%
So a 25% chance that 2 or more results go our way.
Of course we have to win too so final % chance of a play off place is 15% or 5.7/1
That's actually a little bit better than I first imagined.
So from there chances of winning play offs?
I would give us a 50% chance in any game so 50% * 50% * 15% = 3.75% or 25.7/1
Chances of another home game?
Chances of us finishing 4th is 3% * 60% = 1.8%
Chances of 4th and 5th placed teams winning away about 15%
So chances of another home game about 0.27% or 370/1
Chances of another home game and winning the play offs 740/1
Hope that helps lol.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 8:46:54 GMT
I'm being out-nerded!
Positive spin on missing out on the playoffs as opposed to losing in them: if we lose in the playoffs, there's the temptation to think "we were unlucky, we're good enough as we are to reach the playoffs again next year"; if we miss out then there's no escaping that the team need to move up a gear to have a chance of promotion in a year's time. No complacency.
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Post by frankinstone on Apr 22, 2014 14:42:05 GMT
Reasons to be cheerful part 3
Met police have drawn more games away then any other side in the league,and lost less away then Hornchurch(and they have a few suspensions?) have at home.
Dulwich face Kingstonian at home, Kings defensive record is 2nd best in the league
Lowestoft ...well.. Harrow are erratic,so thats a fingers crossed job.
Our goal difference is better then the 3 teams we compete with in the play off positions and can only improve when we win on Saturday.
50/50 chance of an extra game or two
This season? frustrating ,yes.. but never boring
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Post by Sennockian69 on Apr 25, 2014 12:48:44 GMT
Ok have worked out some rough probabilities now for those that like their maths! Have assigned these % to each game: Hornchurch lose or draw 50% Dulwich lose 30% Lowestoft lose 20% Maidstone win 60 % Hello - here's another way of looking at things ,You could use the following logic .6*.5*.3 = 9% chance - Very optimistic. ( Based on your assessment)
Or realistically .5*.2272*.5454 = 6 % chance
We have a 6 to 9 % chance of qualifying for the playoffs - Give it your all lads.All 3 games go against us - 28% Only 1 game goes for us - 47% Now the interesting part 2 games go for us - 22% All 3 games go for us 3% So a 25% chance that 2 or more results go our way. Of course we have to win too so final % chance of a play off place is 15% or 5.7/1 That's actually a little bit better than I first imagined. So from there chances of winning play offs? I would give us a 50% chance in any game so 50% * 50% * 15% = 3.75% or 25.7/1 Chances of another home game? Chances of us finishing 4th is 3% * 60% = 1.8% Chances of 4th and 5th placed teams winning away about 15% So chances of another home game about 0.27% or 370/1 Chances of another home game and winning the play offs 740/1 Hope that helps lol. Hope. |
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Post by Sennockian69 on Apr 25, 2014 13:05:11 GMT
Ok have worked out some rough probabilities now for those that like their maths! Have assigned these % to each game: Hornchurch lose or draw 50% Dulwich lose 30% Lowestoft lose 20% Maidstone win 60 % The doom merchants would make this assessment :
.5*.2272*.1818 = 2% chance
or when there was a flicker of hope in their souls
.5*5454*.1818 = 5 % chanceAll 3 games go against us - 28% Only 1 game goes for us - 47% Now the interesting part 2 games go for us - 22% All 3 games go for us 3% So a 25% chance that 2 or more results go our way. Of course we have to win too so final % chance of a play off place is 15% or 5.7/1 That's actually a little bit better than I first imagined. So from there chances of winning play offs? I would give us a 50% chance in any game so 50% * 50% * 15% = 3.75% or 25.7/1 Chances of another home game? Chances of us finishing 4th is 3% * 60% = 1.8% Chances of 4th and 5th placed teams winning away about 15% So chances of another home game about 0.27% or 370/1 Chances of another home game and winning the play offs 740/1 Hope that helps lol. |
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Post by tooloow on Apr 25, 2014 19:37:47 GMT
Ok have worked out some rough probabilities now for those that like their maths! You've definitely got me hooked there Have assigned these % to each game: Hornchurch lose or draw 50% Dulwich lose 30% Lowestoft lose 20% Maidstone win 60 % My favoured, objective, estimator of odds in this situation, where its only 1 days games is bookies odds - I trust that between them and the market its a far better estimator of chances than I can ever come up with. Based on best odds from a selection of bookies I get the chances for each event to be: Hornchurch lose or draw 34.6% Dulwich lose 26.4% Lowestoft lose 14.6% Maidstone win 63.4% So (other than our chances of winning), this is quite a bit more pessimistic than your view  All 3 games go against us - 28% Only 1 game goes for us - 47% Now the interesting part 2 games go for us - 22% All 3 games go for us 3% So I have the following chances... All 3 games go against us: 41.1% 1 game goes for us: 43.5% 2 games go for us: 14.0% All 3 games go for us: 1.3% So a 25% chance that 2 or more results go our way. I'm down to 15.3% Of course we have to win too so final % chance of a play off place is 15% or 5.7/1 That's actually a little bit better than I first imagined. I'm at 9.7% - which like you is better than I imagined.... So from there chances of winning play offs? I would give us a 50% chance in any game so 50% * 50% * 15% = 3.75% or 25.7/1 I think 50% is optimistic given the likelihood is that both potential play off games would be away. |
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Post by islandstone on Apr 25, 2014 21:01:16 GMT
You lot are on acid.
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