Swordy v Bookmakers season 2 +other assorted rubbish

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Aug 19, 2023 11:05:53 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Don't want to disillusion you, Sword, but have you ever seen a poor bookie?

Fully aware of that, and it makes the battle fun especially when you beat the odds. I will prevail.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 3:37:31 GMT sword65 said:

Only 2 out of 5. My prediction rate has dropped below 50% and this is now the 3rd equal worst start to a season but a long way to go to beat the worst start of £146 before a win,that season I finished with a loss of £196.45. I seem to have lost the midas touch so perhaps Grovergreenstone is right,I know nothing.Swordy £0 v Bookies £59

Dont be so hard on yourself, I'm sure your luck will change soon enough

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 11:54:37 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

Aug 19, 2023 3:37:31 GMT sword65 said:

Only 2 out of 5. My prediction rate has dropped below 50% and this is now the 3rd equal worst start to a season but a long way to go to beat the worst start of £146 before a win,that season I finished with a loss of £196.45. I seem to have lost the midas touch so perhaps Grovergreenstone is right,I know nothing.Swordy £0 v Bookies £59

Dont be so hard on yourself, I'm sure your luck will change soon enough

Luck (by definition) is entirely random. There is no pattern, no lucky streak, no lucky people - just randomness.

Unfortunately, humans are hard-wired to see patterns where none exist - and to ignore all other indications that there really is no pattern.

Bookies know this and work entirely on probability - angling their odds just enough so that punters think they can win - but, ultimately, the bookies always win.

To put it simply, it's a mug's game.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 13:04:46 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Aug 19, 2023 11:54:37 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

Dont be so hard on yourself, I'm sure your luck will change soon enough

Luck (by definition) is entirely random. There is no pattern, no lucky streak, no lucky people - just randomness.

Unfortunately, humans are hard-wired to see patterns where none exist - and to ignore all other indications that there really is no pattern.

Bookies know this and work entirely on probability - angling their odds just enough so that punters think they can win - but, ultimately, the bookies always win.

To put it simply, it's a mug's game.

But if you lose 20 bets in a row, then win one, you luck has changed. His luck will change , so hopefully for him its on a bet with a big payout

[Deleted]

That's just human misperception - luck remains just as random as it always is.

In reality , there is no such thing as luck. Life itself is just random. We call this randomness 'good luck' or 'bad luck', but it's actually just blind randomness.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 14:59:55 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

That's just human misperception - luck remains just as random as it always is.

In reality , there is no such thing as luck. Life itself is just random. We call this randomness 'good luck' or 'bad luck', but it's actually just blind randomness.

I too work on probabilities.when a team who has won 12 of their last 15 home games us playing a team that has one once in 11 away games then probability is heavily in favour of a home win but in reality it ended up 6-1 away win,as we all know there is no logic to football. Grover is right,at the moment I am £70 down but one win will àl but wipe that off.

[Deleted]

As for today some of the scorelines defy all logic and I would break down and cry if I could stop laughing long enough. The thing is most of my choices went down the sewer but virtually all the games that I rejected in favour of my choices also went down the pan which really just left games that I wouldn't touch with a barge pole. I need to rethink my strategy and see if I can pull that,so far, elusive win out of the bag.Swordy £0 v Bookies £70.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 11:54:37 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

Aug 19, 2023 3:37:31 GMT sword65 said:

Only 2 out of 5. My prediction rate has dropped below 50% and this is now the 3rd equal worst start to a season but a long way to go to beat the worst start of £146 before a win,that season I finished with a loss of £196.45. I seem to have lost the midas touch so perhaps Grovergreenstone is right,I know nothing.Swordy £0 v Bookies £59

Dont be so hard on yourself, I'm sure your luck will change soon enough

It will,I never doubt it but I always feel uneasy until that first winner comes along. I love the battle for supremacy between myself and the bookies ,a battle that I have a good record in.

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 19:21:47 GMT sword65 said:

Aug 19, 2023 14:59:55 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

That's just human misperception - luck remains just as random as it always is.

In reality , there is no such thing as luck. Life itself is just random. We call this randomness 'good luck' or 'bad luck', but it's actually just blind randomness.

I too work on probabilities.when a team who has won 12 of their last 15 home games us playing a team that has one once in 11 away games then probability is heavily in favour of a home win but in reality it ended up 6-1 away win,as we all know there is no logic to football. Grover is right,at the moment I am £70 down but one win will àl but wipe that off.

Ah, but you don't work with probabilities. They only apply to populations and time periods, but can never be used to predict individual events. Probabilty two seasons ago said we would beat most sides, most of the time, but if you had put money on us beating Dorking or Slough you would have lost it.

You might do better than the average punter if you know your subject, but, as the bookies also know their probabilities, you will ultimately lose. The only way to make a lot of money with gambling is good old, random luck.

Years ago we put a football gambling syndicate together at work - about a dozen of us. Each week we would choose about a dozen 'certs' and put our collective two quids on them. We won once in half a season. Our boss, fed up with losing £2 each week, insisted we delegate the selection to the three or four who knew most about football, to improve our predictions. We lost every week for the rest of the season!

[Deleted]

Aug 19, 2023 19:37:06 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Aug 19, 2023 19:21:47 GMT sword65 said:

I too work on probabilities.when a team who has won 12 of their last 15 home games us playing a team that has one once in 11 away games then probability is heavily in favour of a home win but in reality it ended up 6-1 away win,as we all know there is no logic to football. Grover is right,at the moment I am £70 down but one win will àl but wipe that off.

Ah, but you don't work with probabilities. They only apply to populations and time periods, but can never be used to predict individual events. Probabilty two seasons ago said we would beat most sides, most of the time, but if you had put money on us beating Dorking or Slough you would have lost it.

You might do better than the average punter if you know your subject, but, as the bookies also know their probabilities, you will ultimately lose. The only way to make a lot of money with gambling is good old, random luck.

Years ago we put a football gambling syndicate together at work - about a dozen of us. Each week we would choose about a dozen 'certs' and put our collective two quids on them. We won once in half a season. Our boss, fed up with losing £2 each week, insisted we delegate the selection to the three or four who knew most about football, to improve our predictions. We lost every week for the rest of the season!

It's hard enough to pick 4 let alone 12 ,you were just asking to lose. One win every 14 bets us the break even rate. Last years record losing sequence was followed by a run of victories that produced a £450 swing in my favour in about 4 weeks,but yes it all boils down to luck in the end.

[Deleted]

I wish they would do in play betting in Formula 1, would be a definite money earner if you follow the sport close enough.

[Deleted]

Aug 21, 2023 6:33:43 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

I wish they would do in play betting in Formula 1, would be a definite money earner if you follow the sport close enough.

It's just a shame I'm banned from Internet betting until next season as the cash out option was a big plus.

[Deleted]

Aug 21, 2023 7:09:57 GMT sword65 said:

Aug 21, 2023 6:33:43 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

I wish they would do in play betting in Formula 1, would be a definite money earner if you follow the sport close enough.

It's just a shame I'm banned from Internet betting until next season as the cash out option was a big plus.

What caused you to be banned ?

[Deleted]

Aug 21, 2023 8:50:39 GMT @grovergreenstone said:

Aug 21, 2023 7:09:57 GMT sword65 said:

It's just a shame I'm banned from Internet betting until next season as the cash out option was a big plus.

What caused you to be banned ?

The terms and conditions of my IVA meant I had to forfeit all rights to Internet betting fir a period of 5 years. To enforce this I had to register with GAMSTOP for 5 years. I could find a loophole if I wanted to but if the company in charge of my IVA found out they would cancel it and demand that I pay the £31,000 debt that I had accrued. The debt by the way was not through gambling,that is a long and very nasty story that we won't go into. Anyway walking to the bookies and dealing in cash only is not a problem plus I get a free coffee😁

[Deleted]

Trying a Danish 4 fold to see if i can bring home the bacon but will more than likely be blue cheesed off.
Wins for
B93 Copenhagen
Sonderjyske
Helsingor
Vendsyssel
Played over tues/wed £2 acca pays 13.56/1