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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2018 1:29:54 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I've been (slowly) compiling a list of clubs promoted from/relegated to the Conference/NL since automatic promotion began.
This is a grindingly boring task, made even more difficult by clubs folding and reforming - and getting promoted/relegated several times! So I am still some way from finishing it, but the changing pattern of promotions over the years has at least emerged.
The history of automatic promotion divides (almost) neatly into two halves: for the first 16 years, from 1987 until 2002 only one club was promoted, and for the last 15 years two clubs have been promoted each season. Comparing those two periods, a change is immediately obvious - in the first 16 years 13 clubs were promoted (for three seasons promotion was refused because grounds weren't up to standard) - 9 non-league and just 4 ex-FL. More than twice as many non-league sides being promoted than ex-FL clubs returning.
But in the 15 years since, just 10 non-league clubs have been promoted, compared to 20 ex-FL clubs - exactly half as many non-league, as ex-FL. A complete reversal from the first 16 years.
And it gets worse, In the last 4 seasons, only one club (FGR) out of the 8 promoted has been a non-league club. Basically, if this trend continues, the NL has turned into a rest home for EFL sides down on their luck - it is no longer a launching platform for non-league clubs wanting a chance at the EFL.
Although, on a more positive note, of the 19 non-league clubs promoted since 87, 12 are currently still in the EFL And of the 10 non-league clubs promoted since double promotions began in 2003, only one (D&R) has been relegated back to the NL. So, if you CAN get into the EFL, you stand a pretty good chance of staying there.
(Caveats - It's difficult at times to know how to categorise clubs, so I have arbitrarily decided that phoenix clubs where the original club was EFL (such as AFC Wimbledon or Newport County) are 'non-league', but ex-non-league clubs returning to the NL/Conf (such as Barnet or Cheltenham) are 'ex-EFL'. This doesn't actually make much difference to the figures, as they tend to cancel each other out.)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2018 10:07:06 GMT
So, since more ex-league clubs have been relegated, more have gone back up
#IShitYouNot
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Post by ronaldostone on Feb 13, 2018 18:53:52 GMT
My head hurts
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2018 22:48:12 GMT
So, since more ex-league clubs have been relegated, more have gone back up #IShitYouNot Not sure how you read that into my post! The key point is that it appears to be getting much harder for a non-league side to get promoted - all the slots recently have been taken by ex-EFL clubs going back up. Ex-EFL clubs have, of course, been getting back into the EFL since Lincoln first did, but initially they were outnumbered by non-league clubs getting promoted, then gradually that reversed and more recently it has been almost ONLY ex-EFL clubs being promoted. This has nothing to do with the number coming down, that's the same all the time! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2018 18:06:40 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I've been (slowly) compiling a list of clubs promoted from/relegated to the Conference/NL since automatic promotion began. This is a grindingly boring task, made even more difficult by clubs folding and reforming - and getting promoted/relegated several times! So I am still some way from finishing it, but the changing pattern of promotions over the years has at least emerged. The history of automatic promotion divides (almost) neatly into two halves: for the first 16 years, from 1987 until 2002 only one club was promoted, and for the last 15 years two clubs have been promoted each season. Comparing those two periods, a change is immediately obvious - in the first 16 years 13 clubs were promoted (for three seasons promotion was refused because grounds weren't up to standard) - 9 non-league and just 4 ex-FL. More than twice as many non-league sides being promoted than ex-FL clubs returning. But in the 15 years since, just 10 non-league clubs have been promoted, compared to 20 ex-FL clubs - exactly half as many non-league, as ex-FL. A complete reversal from the first 16 years. And it gets worse, In the last 4 seasons, only one club (FGR) out of the 8 promoted has been a non-league club. Basically, if this trend continues, the NL has turned into a rest home for EFL sides down on their luck - it is no longer a launching platform for non-league clubs wanting a chance at the EFL. Although, on a more positive note, of the 19 non-league clubs promoted since 87, 12 are currently still in the EFL And of the 10 non-league clubs promoted since double promotions began in 2003, only one (D&R) has been relegated back to the NL. So, if you CAN get into the EFL, you stand a pretty good chance of staying there. (Caveats - It's difficult at times to know how to categorise clubs, so I have arbitrarily decided that phoenix clubs where the original club was EFL (such as AFC Wimbledon or Newport County) are 'non-league', but ex-non-league clubs returning to the NL/Conf (such as Barnet or Cheltenham) are 'ex-EFL'. This doesn't actually make much difference to the figures, as they tend to cancel each other out.) Which is why you are the correct one for the task. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2018 18:48:32 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I've been (slowly) compiling a list of clubs promoted from/relegated to the Conference/NL since automatic promotion began. This is a grindingly boring task, made even more difficult by clubs folding and reforming - and getting promoted/relegated several times! So I am still some way from finishing it, but the changing pattern of promotions over the years has at least emerged. The history of automatic promotion divides (almost) neatly into two halves: for the first 16 years, from 1987 until 2002 only one club was promoted, and for the last 15 years two clubs have been promoted each season. Comparing those two periods, a change is immediately obvious - in the first 16 years 13 clubs were promoted (for three seasons promotion was refused because grounds weren't up to standard) - 9 non-league and just 4 ex-FL. More than twice as many non-league sides being promoted than ex-FL clubs returning. But in the 15 years since, just 10 non-league clubs have been promoted, compared to 20 ex-FL clubs - exactly half as many non-league, as ex-FL. A complete reversal from the first 16 years. And it gets worse, In the last 4 seasons, only one club (FGR) out of the 8 promoted has been a non-league club. Basically, if this trend continues, the NL has turned into a rest home for EFL sides down on their luck - it is no longer a launching platform for non-league clubs wanting a chance at the EFL. Although, on a more positive note, of the 19 non-league clubs promoted since 87, 12 are currently still in the EFL And of the 10 non-league clubs promoted since double promotions began in 2003, only one (D&R) has been relegated back to the NL. So, if you CAN get into the EFL, you stand a pretty good chance of staying there. (Caveats - It's difficult at times to know how to categorise clubs, so I have arbitrarily decided that phoenix clubs where the original club was EFL (such as AFC Wimbledon or Newport County) are 'non-league', but ex-non-league clubs returning to the NL/Conf (such as Barnet or Cheltenham) are 'ex-EFL'. This doesn't actually make much difference to the figures, as they tend to cancel each other out.) Which is why you are the correct one for the task. Indeed! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2018 11:11:45 GMT
So, since more ex-league clubs have been relegated, more have gone back up #IShitYouNot Not sure how you read that into my post! The key point is that it appears to be getting much harder for a non-league side to get promoted - all the slots recently have been taken by ex-EFL clubs going back up. Ex-EFL clubs have, of course, been getting back into the EFL since Lincoln first did, but initially they were outnumbered by non-league clubs getting promoted, then gradually that reversed and more recently it has been almost ONLY ex-EFL clubs being promoted. This has nothing to do wit the number coming down, that's the same all the time! Yes, because - in 30 years - a high number of league clubs have come down, meaning a higher number of league clubs are in a position to go up. It's not rocket science in need of investigation. As per my previous post. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2018 13:06:53 GMT
Not sure how you read that into my post! The key point is that it appears to be getting much harder for a non-league side to get promoted - all the slots recently have been taken by ex-EFL clubs going back up. Ex-EFL clubs have, of course, been getting back into the EFL since Lincoln first did, but initially they were outnumbered by non-league clubs getting promoted, then gradually that reversed and more recently it has been almost ONLY ex-EFL clubs being promoted. This has nothing to do wit the number coming down, that's the same all the time! Yes, because - in 30 years - a high number of league clubs have come down, meaning a higher number of league clubs are in a position to go up. It's not rocket science in need of investigation. As per my previous post. But that isn't what I said - or what the stats show! The same number (more or less) have been coming down all the time. But in the early days they (mostly) found it harder to get back up and non-league clubs got promoted twice as often as ex-League clubs. However, in recent times this has reversed and now the ex-League clubs get back up much more easily (in general), and the non-league clubs are finding it almost impossible to get promoted. It's nothing to do with how many League clubs get relegated each year, it's (I suspect) down to the fact that the NL is a lot harder to win than the early Conference (because there are so many ex-League clubs in it), and, once the crap League clubs had dropped out of Div4/L2, the clubs that were left were much better equipped to get back up out of the NL. As I said, the NL has become a sort of R&R place for ex-EFL clubs, it is no longer a means of non-league clubs getting into the EFL (FGR excepted - although with their budget, they are hardly typical - and they are hardly setting L2 alight anyway). |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2018 15:48:23 GMT
I never said it was down to how many come down each year.
Your stats show what I said.
Over 30 years more league teams have come down (in total, regardless of the amount of relegation spots). Therefore there are more league teams in a position to get promoted than there were 5/10/20/30 years ago.
It really is quite simple.
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Post by spurstone on Feb 16, 2018 10:17:00 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I've been (slowly) compiling a list of clubs promoted from/relegated to the Conference/NL since automatic promotion began. This is a grindingly boring task, made even more difficult by clubs folding and reforming - and getting promoted/relegated several times! So I am still some way from finishing it, but the changing pattern of promotions over the years has at least emerged. The history of automatic promotion divides (almost) neatly into two halves: for the first 16 years, from 1987 until 2002 only one club was promoted, and for the last 15 years two clubs have been promoted each season. Comparing those two periods, a change is immediately obvious - in the first 16 years 13 clubs were promoted (for three seasons promotion was refused because grounds weren't up to standard) - 9 non-league and just 4 ex-FL. More than twice as many non-league sides being promoted than ex-FL clubs returning. But in the 15 years since, just 10 non-league clubs have been promoted, compared to 20 ex-FL clubs - exactly half as many non-league, as ex-FL. A complete reversal from the first 16 years. And it gets worse, In the last 4 seasons, only one club (FGR) out of the 8 promoted has been a non-league club. Basically, if this trend continues, the NL has turned into a rest home for EFL sides down on their luck - it is no longer a launching platform for non-league clubs wanting a chance at the EFL. Although, on a more positive note, of the 19 non-league clubs promoted since 87, 12 are currently still in the EFL And of the 10 non-league clubs promoted since double promotions began in 2003, only one (D&R) has been relegated back to the NL. So, if you CAN get into the EFL, you stand a pretty good chance of staying there. (Caveats - It's difficult at times to know how to categorise clubs, so I have arbitrarily decided that phoenix clubs where the original club was EFL (such as AFC Wimbledon or Newport County) are 'non-league', but ex-non-league clubs returning to the NL/Conf (such as Barnet or Cheltenham) are 'ex-EFL'. This doesn't actually make much difference to the figures, as they tend to cancel each other out.) Be good to see the list so far . Like this (I think lol) |
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Post by spurstone on Feb 16, 2018 15:32:57 GMT
Over the last few weeks, I've been (slowly) compiling a list of clubs promoted from/relegated to the Conference/NL since automatic promotion began. This is a grindingly boring task, made even more difficult by clubs folding and reforming - and getting promoted/relegated several times! So I am still some way from finishing it, but the changing pattern of promotions over the years has at least emerged. The history of automatic promotion divides (almost) neatly into two halves: for the first 16 years, from 1987 until 2002 only one club was promoted, and for the last 15 years two clubs have been promoted each season. Comparing those two periods, a change is immediately obvious - in the first 16 years 13 clubs were promoted (for three seasons promotion was refused because grounds weren't up to standard) - 9 non-league and just 4 ex-FL. More than twice as many non-league sides being promoted than ex-FL clubs returning. But in the 15 years since, just 10 non-league clubs have been promoted, compared to 20 ex-FL clubs - exactly half as many non-league, as ex-FL. A complete reversal from the first 16 years. And it gets worse, In the last 4 seasons, only one club (FGR) out of the 8 promoted has been a non-league club. Basically, if this trend continues, the NL has turned into a rest home for EFL sides down on their luck - it is no longer a launching platform for non-league clubs wanting a chance at the EFL. Although, on a more positive note, of the 19 non-league clubs promoted since 87, 12 are currently still in the EFL And of the 10 non-league clubs promoted since double promotions began in 2003, only one (D&R) has been relegated back to the NL. So, if you CAN get into the EFL, you stand a pretty good chance of staying there. (Caveats - It's difficult at times to know how to categorise clubs, so I have arbitrarily decided that phoenix clubs where the original club was EFL (such as AFC Wimbledon or Newport County) are 'non-league', but ex-non-league clubs returning to the NL/Conf (such as Barnet or Cheltenham) are 'ex-EFL'. This doesn't actually make much difference to the figures, as they tend to cancel each other out.) Be good to see the list so far . Like this (I think lol) Out of the club's that have been relegated from the FL (not demoted) and had never been in NL before, it would be interesting to know who at any time reached the highest position in the FL. Cambridge United maybe? Or maybe they were NL once before? Could it be one of the current bunch? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 20:00:44 GMT
Be good to see the list so far . Like this (I think lol) Out of the club's that have been relegated from the FL (not demoted) and had never been in NL before, it would be interesting to know who at any time reached the highest position in the FL. Cambridge United maybe? Or maybe they were NL once before? Could it be one of the current bunch? Indeed it would. But have you any idea how long that would take to 'research'?! |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 20:17:37 GMT
Out of the club's that have been relegated from the FL (not demoted) and had never been in NL before, it would be interesting to know who at any time reached the highest position in the FL. Cambridge United maybe? Or maybe they were NL once before? Could it be one of the current bunch? Indeed it would. But have you any idea how long that would take to 'research'?! But for now, here's an extract from my nightmare spreadsheet. Promotions from the Conf/NL since automatic pronunciation started: 1986–87 Scarborough*1987–88 Lincoln City 1988–89 Maidstone United*1989–90 Darlington 1990–91 Barnet1991–92 Colchester United 1992–93 Wycombe Wanderers1993–94 1994–95 1995–96 1996–97 Macclesfield Town1997–98 Halifax Town 1998–99 Cheltenham Town1999–00 Kidderminster Harriers2000–01 Rushden & Diamonds*2001–02 Boston United 2002–03 Yeovil Town , Doncaster Rovers 2003–04 Chester City, Shrewsbury Town 2004–05 Barnet, Carlisle United 2005–06 Accrington Stanley (ph) , Hereford United 2006–07 Dagenham & Redbridge , Morecambe2007–08 Aldershot Town (ph) , Exeter City 2008–09 Burton Albion , Torquay United 2009–10 Stevenage Borough , Oxford United 2010–11 Crawley Town, AFC Wimbledon (ph)2011–12 Fleetwood Town , York City 2012–13 Mansfield Town, Newport County (ph)2013–14 Luton Town, Cambridge United 2014–15 Barnet, Bristol Rovers 2015–16 Cheltenham Town, Grimsby Town 2016–17 Lincoln City, Forest Green RoversKey: red = non-league club (including phoenix ex-EFL, but not including ex-non-league clubs who have been in the EFL) red/bold = non-league clubs still in EFL * = went bust (ph) = phoenix club Caveat - I'm still finding occasional mistakes in the spreadsheet so some of the above may not be accurate. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2018 20:26:25 GMT
Note this only gives one side of the picture - for the full understanding of the flow between the NL and the EFL you need to take into account relegations from the EFL. I haven't yet come up with an easy way of showing this on this forum!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2018 10:03:14 GMT
Note this only gives one side of the picture - for the full understanding of the flow between the NL and the EFL you need to take into account relegations from the EFL. I haven't yet come up with an easy way of showing this on this forum! Haven't actually tried it but I think posts can have attachments so rather than trying to format your posts to be readable you could just attach the spreadsheet. |
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