Around the National League.

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Mar 17, 2024 9:58:40 GMT aristotle38 said:

Mar 16, 2024 22:15:13 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Hard to believe, but Oxford City are doing worse this year than we did last season.

We actually had a pretty good start to that season - in the play-offs by the third game and still in the top half by game 7 - then we crashed...

But Oxford didn't even have that - they started in the relegation zone, and spent the first 5 games there - until briefly rising to 15th, before crashing back down. From that point, their league position this season has pretty much matched ours last season, except that we managed to get out of relegation for 7 games, whereas they've so far only managed it twice, for a single game each time. And they actually hit bottom two games before us.

I think the only difference there is that they got up via the play-offs, really weren’t expecting to, and had no false illusions that this season was going to be a struggle. You’re right, at one point they were exceeding expectations, but they are pretty much where they expected to be. In that respect we performed far worse than expectation……

True. In fact my 'stats' are (I'm afraid, deliberately...) a little misleading - although their season in terms of table position after every game is worse than ours (so far), they are actually doing much better in terms of wins, draws and goals.

We finished that season on 25 points, with only 5 wins and 10 draws (45 105 -59!), whereas Oxford are already on 29 points with 7 wins and 8 draws (50 85 -35*). FWP predict they'll have 34 points by the end of the season - that would have put them one place above us last season.

I'm not quite so sure that they weren't really expecting to win promotion, though. They finished 3rd (albeit on GD - but 3rd is probably the highest we can expect this season, and that might be on GD as well!) and had been 3rd for the last 9 games of the season (won 5, drew 2), so they must have gone into the play-offs with pretty high expectations. And they beat Worthing easily 2-0 and thrashed St Albans 4-0 to earn promotion. The reality of their first ever season in the NL must have come as a huge shock!


*(assuming today's game stays at 0-2)

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I was going to say something in that post about the record for NS clubs promoted from the playoffs not being as bad as people think - until I checked the stats and found out that that isn't really true!

Automatically promoted clubs mostly do OK. Since the NS was created in 2005, 18 clubs have gone up as Champions, six of them are still in the NL and another 4 have been promoted to the EFL (although Torquay came back down after 5 years and Sutton look like they could follow them). So that's 10 out of 18 - more than half - of NS Champions that have done well in the NL. Another 5 didn't do too badly, surviving for between 3 and 6 seasons, with three of them actually making the playoffs, and only three clubs have crashed straight back out

So, overall, pretty good - you stand an 83% chance of doing OK, with a 50% chance of surviving long-term (including a 22% chance of getting promoted to the EFL). Only 1 in 6 of clubs come straight back down again.

But for playoff promoted clubs, it's sadly a very different story. The only standout club is Boreham Wood, who have not only lasted 9 seasons so far, but have also made the playoffs three times. Woking have also done quite well, having survived 5 seasons, and made the playoffs once. The only other surviving club is Dorking, with just two seasons so far - and that might be their lot. Dover also had a good record, surviving for 8 seasons, before crashing out in a fit of pique. But, otherwise, it's not good. One club (Salisbury) has actually managed to be expelled, not just once, but twice! And three clubs crashed out in their first season in 24th place. The other 9 clubs have only managed 2 or 3 seasons before relegation.

So, your chances of surviving more than 5 seasons if promoted via the playoffs? About 17% (1/6). And you've no chance of making it to the EFL (BW looked like they might be able to do it, but it all seems to have gone tits up this season.) Your chances of being expelled or crashing straight out are about 28%. But, on the bright side, you've got a 50% chance of making 2 or 3 seasons...

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Oxford City back down - a worse season even than ours last year...

Boreham Wood stay in the relegation zone, courtesy of Chesterfield becoming Champions.

Dorking shafted 6-0 by Barnet and now just 1 place off the bottom.

Kidderminster's attempt to get out of the relegation zone fades as they drop back to 22nd.

And people might have to stop asking "how then does a club like Maidenhead survive in the NL?" as their recent slide brings them to one place above the Zone of Death.

Meanwhile, York have managed to lift themselves back out of relegation, whilst Fleet, Flyde and Woking, all of whom looked pretty dead a few weeks ago, are now well clear.

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Mar 23, 2024 22:06:16 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Oxford City back down - a worse season even than ours last year...

Boreham Wood stay in the relegation zone, courtesy of Chesterfield becoming Champions.

Dorking shafted 6-0 by Barnet and now just 1 place off the bottom.

Kidderminster's attempt to get out of the relegation zone fades as they drop back to 22nd.

And people might have to stop asking "how then does a club like Maidenhead survive in the NL?" as their recent slide brings them to one place above the Zone of Death.

Meanwhile, York have managed to lift themselves back out of relegation, whilst Fleet, Flyde and Woking, all of whom looked pretty dead a few weeks ago, are now well clear.

I think it’s a stretch to say Oxford season is worse than ours last season.

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Did Oxford sack their manager then spend a small fortune on substandard players trying to survive? We did, twice.

If we ever find ourselves in that position again, a distinct possibility, maybe we should just accept that sometimes you have a bad season against wealthier opposition.

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Mar 23, 2024 22:06:16 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Oxford City back down - a worse season even than ours last year...

Oxford have 4 more points than we did last season, with 5 games left. Also, they've scored more goals than we did and at the moment conceded less.....we ended the season with a goal difference of -59, Oxford currently is -36.

Our season was worse

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I hear Marc White the manager/owner of Dorking has told a coup0le of his overpaid stars that they will never play for the club again.

Whatever you think about him, I think his team would win the NLS without breaking sweat.

Yea that includes Yeovil.

Makes you think if this promotion bid is really such a good idea.

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Mar 24, 2024 16:47:30 GMT @harry said:

I hear Marc White the manager/owner of Dorking has told a coup0le of his overpaid stars that they will never play for the club again.

Whatever you think about him, I think his team would win the NLS without breaking sweat.

Yea that includes Yeovil.

Makes you think if this promotion bid is really such a good idea.

Just shows what a prized prat Marc White is as he now has a couple of players not playing but still be grossly overpaid .

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Be a shocker if we miss each other next season cause their in a lower league.

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Mar 23, 2024 22:46:26 GMT pwoodstone said:

Mar 23, 2024 22:06:16 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Oxford City back down - a worse season even than ours last year...

Boreham Wood stay in the relegation zone, courtesy of Chesterfield becoming Champions.

Dorking shafted 6-0 by Barnet and now just 1 place off the bottom.

Kidderminster's attempt to get out of the relegation zone fades as they drop back to 22nd.

And people might have to stop asking "how then does a club like Maidenhead survive in the NL?" as their recent slide brings them to one place above the Zone of Death.

Meanwhile, York have managed to lift themselves back out of relegation, whilst Fleet, Flyde and Woking, all of whom looked pretty dead a few weeks ago, are now well clear.

I think it’s a stretch to say Oxford season is worse than ours last season.

If you check out their 'progress' on FWP and compare it to ours last season, you'll see what I mean:

(click on image)

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Mar 24, 2024 16:39:45 GMT Raymondo316 said:

Mar 23, 2024 22:06:16 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Oxford City back down - a worse season even than ours last year...

Oxford have 4 more points than we did last season, with 5 games left. Also, they've scored more goals than we did and at the moment conceded less.....we ended the season with a goal difference of -59, Oxford currently is -36.

Our season was worse

Depends how you look at it:

(click on image)

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2024 16:47:30 GMT @harry said:

I hear Marc White the manager/owner of Dorking has told a coup0le of his overpaid stars that they will never play for the club again.

Whatever you think about him, I think his team would win the NLS without breaking sweat.

Yea that includes Yeovil.

Makes you think if this promotion bid is really such a good idea.

What else can we do - throw the last few games?

In George we trust..

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Bromley bring in a striker on loan…not looking like Levi is recovering from his injury as quickly as hoped

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Dorking are now pretty much relegated, with how bad their goal difference is they're 6 points from safety

[Deleted]

Mar 29, 2024 21:55:28 GMT Raymondo316 said:

Dorking are now pretty much relegated, with how bad their goal difference is they're 6 points from safety

Bottom of the form table too - L L L D L L - 1pt - for 4, against 17, GD -13