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Post by tooloow on Apr 7, 2014 14:23:28 GMT
Prefer football web pages predicted final table, I don't really like the way they do the table - they assume they can forecast exact results - whereas (as we full know!!) any result is possible!
It makes far more sense (IMHO) to take the EV (Expected Value) of each result and to predict a final table based on that. Funny thing is, they could actually do this quite easily because when you look at the results they use they predict the percentage chance of each result (Home Win, Away Win, Draw) - so they have all the information they need to do that (though I've no idea how they come up with their percentage chances and no idea how accurate/sensible they are....)
I have a little bit of spare time now .... I might just do the table that way.......
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Post by tooloow on Apr 7, 2014 14:44:10 GMT
I'm still working But a couple of observations that I hadn't realised which really increase our chances.... - Wealdstone can do us MASSIVE favours at home to Lowestoft and Kingstonian - hopefully they can keep picking up points! - Lowestoft have 5 games in 10 days - hopefully that will take its toll a bit.....
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Post by tooloow on Apr 7, 2014 14:51:03 GMT
Ok - here's the predicted EV table - absurdly close!!!!
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Post by Tony G on Apr 7, 2014 20:44:01 GMT
Hendon 3 - 4 Hampton & Richmond Borough
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Post by Tony G on Apr 7, 2014 20:44:16 GMT
Hendon 3 - 4 Hampton & Richmond Borough
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Post by russc on Apr 8, 2014 8:37:46 GMT
Wealdstone will have won the league by the time they play Kingstonian, so they may not be busting a gut to beat them
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2014 12:38:04 GMT
Leiston v Kingstonian D Wealdstone v Lowestoft Town H Grays Athletic v Bognor Regis Town A Hampton & Richmond Borough v AFC Hornchurch D Billericay Town v Dulwich Hamlet D Bognor Regis Town v Wingate & Finchley H Enfield Town v Maidstone United A Grays Athletic v Wealdstone A Harrow Borough v AFC Hornchurch A Kingstonian v Lowestoft Town D Hampton & Richmond Borough v Bognor Regis Town D Lowestoft Town v Enfield Town H Margate v Wealdstone A Grays Athletic v Lowestoft Town A AFC Hornchurch v Hampton & Richmond Borough H Dulwich Hamlet v Leiston H Lowestoft Town v Billericay Town D Maidstone United v Bognor Regis Town D Wealdstone v Kingstonian H Billericay Town v Wealdstone D Bognor Regis Town v Hendon H Bury Town v Lowestoft Town D Canvey Island v AFC Hornchurch A Hampton & Richmond Borough v Dulwich Hamlet A Kingstonian v Carshalton Athletic H Metropolitan Police v Maidstone United D AFC Hornchurch v Metropolitan Police H Dulwich Hamlet v Kingstonian D East Thurrock United v Bognor Regis Town A Lowestoft Town v Harrow Borough H Maidstone United v Grays Athletic H Wealdstone v Canvey Island H
Wealdstone 104 Hornchurch 88 Bognor 87 Dulwich 86 Maidstone 82 Lowestoft 82 Kingstonian 80
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Post by tooloow on Apr 9, 2014 12:48:28 GMT
Ok - here's the predicted EV table - absurdly close!!!!
Revised EV table after last nights (and Tuesday) results.
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Post by ontheup on Apr 10, 2014 19:28:40 GMT
Grays are 3-0 up against Bognor at the moment
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Post by ontheup on Apr 10, 2014 19:38:09 GMT
3-1 now, plus Danny Lye has given Hythe the lead away at Sittingbourne
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smoky
Junior Member
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Post by smoky on Apr 10, 2014 20:02:07 GMT
Hampton 1-0 up
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Post by ontheup on Apr 10, 2014 20:10:30 GMT
Grays only 3-2 up now, tonbridge losing to Dover
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Post by islandstone on Apr 10, 2014 20:19:01 GMT
3-1 now, plus Danny Lye has given Hythe the lead away at Sittingbourne What a legend
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Post by ontheup on Apr 10, 2014 20:20:22 GMT
3-3 Bognor
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Post by ontheup on Apr 10, 2014 20:23:18 GMT
Bognor take the lead 4-3
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