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Post by jdl on Jan 9, 2021 15:27:38 GMT
How soon until Trump is arrested - or goes into exile? I'm waiting for there to be four different vaccines available. Then JDL will be able to predict a 4-0 win for vaccines over covid. Unfortunately, we're more likely to win 4-0 first. If they vaccinate top-down, it will be many months, perhaps a year or more, before Covid is brought under control - simply because they are not vaccinating the spreaders. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2021 15:41:29 GMT
Won't herd immunity kick in at that end of the demographic? About 1.5 million infections a month... can see your logic to some extent though.
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Post by jdl on Jan 9, 2021 15:46:00 GMT
Won't herd immunity kick in at that end of the demographic? About 1.5 million infections a month... can see your logic to some extent though. Why would it? Herd immunity only works when a significant part (80%-90%?) of the likely to be infected/likely to infect population is immune. Even at the present rate of infection, that will take a very long time to happen 'naturally'. I fully understand why people favour the vulnerable being vaccinated first, but the only way to stop a pandemic is to isolate or vaccinate those actually spreading the infection. It's simple maths. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2021 15:49:53 GMT
Is it as high as that? I've long since lost concentration on the details.
Amazing how playgroups are staying open. Have you SEEN a 3 year old sneeze? Goes everywhere.
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Post by jdl on Jan 9, 2021 16:36:12 GMT
Is it as high as that? I've long since lost concentration on the details. Amazing how playgroups are staying open. Have you SEEN a 3 year old sneeze? Goes everywhere. It's very difficult to pin down. Especially as so many terms are misused by the media (and these days, even by some 'experts'). 'Herd immunity' originally only applied to vaccination programmes, not epidemics. And the figure varies dependent on the disease in question. For instance, measles is so infectious (and tends to mostly spread by infecting very young children, who may not have yet been vaccinated) that even herd immunity figures in the 90s don't stop outbreaks. If I remember correctly, we started to get problems in the UK recently when the anti-vaccers nonsense reduced the herd immunity figure in children below 95%. With a less infectious disease like Covid, the herd immunity figure will be lower (I'd guess around 80%), but still it's the herd immunity of the age groups who are most likely to spread the disease that matters, not that of the whole population. Of course (at least hopefully!), catching the virus also gives immunity, so a natural herd immunity will develop amongst the high-spreading groups - eventually. And, with children (at least as far as we know) the virus is far less dangerous. But, of course kids spread the disease beyond their age group to those for whom it is very dangerous. There's also the problem of numbers. For instance, the most vulnerable age groups (60 and above) only account for less than 25% of the population, so, even if you vaccinate 100% of them, you are still nowhere near the supposed herd immunity figure for the whole population. And, of course, you haven't even begun to affect the 'herd immunity' in the other 75% of the population - the ones who actually spread the disease (and most of whom will still get very ill with Covid, and many will die or end up with Long-Covid). In short, it's a horribly complicated subject - not the 'easy' figure/term bandied about by the media and 'experts' who should know better. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2021 16:40:15 GMT
Not to mention if people can catch and transmit it twice...
I read the beginning of your reply and thought you had tried to pin down a 3 year old's sneeze...
Didn't need Nostradamus to foresee Jan and Feb being lockdown though.
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Post by jdl on Jan 9, 2021 16:46:27 GMT
Not to mention if people can catch and transmit it twice... I read the beginning of your reply and thought you had tried to pin down a 3 year old's sneeze... Didn't need Nostradamus to foresee Jan and Feb being lockdown though. Never mind a three-year old's sneeze - it's the projectile vommiting that terrified me! |
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Post by nws on Jan 9, 2021 18:02:21 GMT
The reason for vaccinating the old and vulnerable first is because they're the ones most likely to end up in hospital. It's more about protecting the NHS than stopping the virus. It's a bit like flu, how many people under 60 end up in hospital with it. Once you control covid for the elderly and infirm the rest of the population can pretty much carry on as normal. Obviously, just like flu there will be a few more serious cases among the young and healthy, but the majority will carry on with only mild symptoms or not even realise they have it. And even relatively severe cases like my daughter won't end up in hospital because of it. As I said, once you protect the elderly and vulnerable the rest of us should be able to get back to something approaching normality. Just like flu innit? |
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Post by nws on Jan 9, 2021 18:15:08 GMT
you are of course wholly correct daveu and what you say makes 100% sense. just a bit concerning to hear JDL's opposing perspective, just hope it doesn't gain traction in government circles He is right in his 'just like flu' conclusions. 10% of young people who get covid will suffer long covid |
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Post by Dan on Jan 9, 2021 18:18:29 GMT
depends on what you mean by youngish
there are many thousands of otherwise fit people in their 40's and 50's who are very poorly in hospital at present
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Post by 61666 on Jan 9, 2021 21:42:55 GMT
There again, is there an argument that vaccinations should be focussed on areas of highest infection? That should go down well in government, as many probably believe the world stops outside the home counties.
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Post by nws on Feb 5, 2021 0:37:48 GMT
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Post by daveu on Feb 5, 2021 15:59:29 GMT
I love that the fishermen, one of the most vocal groups supporting Brexit can no longer export their catch to Europe. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...
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Post by shamstone on Feb 5, 2021 17:01:30 GMT
I love that the fishermen, one of the most vocal groups supporting Brexit can no longer export their catch to Europe. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha... Is it ha-libut |
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Post by 1018 on Feb 5, 2021 17:11:21 GMT
Hake news.
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