Post by JDL on Jul 3, 2020 23:31:17 GMT
Now that international travel is back on, it's not just the British public you need to worry about.
It's frustrating, because as per my post about 1 case a day in Oxon., COVID's practically gone from large swathes of the country. Couple of months of clamping down on "hotspots" may or may not do the trick.
Thing #6,927 that I just don't get: the NHS can't get through to 20 or 25% people who've had a test. So 1 in 4 people think "I've had a test for this deadly pandemic - better switch off my phone and ignore my emails for a month"? (JDL will blame this on Boris, because of something he read in his comic...)
Kinda back on topic, restricting crowds to 1,000 at the Gallagher will be easy, as [taking this board as representative] about 50% of our fans are so paranoid they'll still be self-isolating in 2030.
On the figure's published this week from the ONS - allegedly independent of the Govt - approximately 1 in 2200 of the general population currently has the virus.
Assuming 25% of those know they have it and act responsibly that's then 1 in 2933 of the people out on the streets potentially having the virus.
Even being optimistic about the potential home crowds at the Gallagher, by assuming 2000, statistically its only slightly more likely than not that one person attending will have the virus.
Evidence appears to suggest - but not conclusively - that 'most' who test positive (and the ONS figures are based on actual tests of all their selected population sample) do not show symptoms. Also those who do not show symptoms are, again believed to be, significantly less contagious than those with symptoms.
Based on those figures and assumptions (and yes, I can accept real life can vary) the chances of being near someone, that's 'significantly contagious' at a home match is quite remote. And that's without any mitigating actions being taken.
For away games the average attendance last season was around 950 and the chances are halved again.
Before anyone leaps up and down I'm not intending to provide 'evidence' of anything but trying to put some perspective on the risks.
Personally, based on my own circumstances, that level of risk would not deter me attending matches. But all our circumstances are different and I'd respect different conclusions.
What's your source for this? I've seen/read/heard nothing to support this - in fact just the opposite, as, because they don't display symptons, no one is aware of the danger, and so they effectively become more infectious.