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Post by jdl on Apr 1, 2020 10:50:28 GMT
@oxford glad to see you have picked up on some of my posts. 😊 Interesting points to note currently is that 20 million mobile phone accounts in PRC have gone silent and cremtion urns are in short supply. Cremations in Wuhan are up 5 fold compared with the same time last year implying at least an extra 6000 deaths per month in that area alone. PRC has banned all international visitors (even though I have a multiple entry visa I am not allowed in now) because they obviously don't want people to see the truth of the CCPvirus. Why do you think they kicked out those US journalists a couple of weeks ago and have refused all offers of outside aid from day one? This CCPvirus does have a second wave that we are currently experiencing in HK but PRC is in denial (making up fantasy stories about it being spread by foreigners). The UK and rest of the world should watch and learn. Do not fall into complacency after a few weeks. FYI all bars and restaurants in HK currently require temperature checks as you walk in the door before you can be served. Maximum 4 persons at a table (otherwise mahjong parlours are screwed) and all tables minimum 1.5m apart. Interesting article on the Sky News website which includes the quote... "And according to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40." I don't think anyone would be surprised if this was the case and I expect Trump will plug the "China virus" theme for all it's worth given the forthcoming Presidential Election.
I wouldn't trust the Chinese government any more than I'd trust Putin, but "lied" and "by a factor of 40" is just silly. No doubt they they tried to cover it up in the early days, and equally no doubt they are probably massaging the figures now. But if they were trying to cover it up now, why admit that they are now partially going back into lockdown because they are facing a second wave of infection? Too much hot air and silliness about this pandemic - you'd think the facts on their own would be worrying enough, without having to make stuff up or indulge in conspiracies.
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Post by jdl on Apr 1, 2020 11:03:24 GMT
As for figures being wrong - does anyone think ours are correct? I'd guess that they are out by a factor of at least two, but probably a lot more.
For a start, there are all those people who have had Convid-19 and had no symptoms, then there are (probably thousands) who have had something (there are still all the usual colds and flu going round) but don't know what it was.
But the thing that most skews the figures is that many (most?) cases simply aren't reported. If you got it now, how would the government know? Would you ring your doctor, just to let them know? Would you make 15 calls to 111 and spend hours hanging on the phone just to make sure the official figures were accurate?
Deaths, of course, are easier to get right, as they have to be registered, but it was only last night that we discovered that the government has only been recording Convid-19 deaths that happened in hospitals. And then there's the confusion over what exactly people die of. My dad, for instance had dementia and Parkinson's, but his death certificate says cause of death pneumonia.
So, British figures are almost certainly way out as well, possibly not even recording a fraction of the true picture. But are the government "lying"?
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Post by Fed up with PC views only on Apr 1, 2020 11:19:33 GMT
Conspiracies misinformation and lies abound from all areas - media governments and so called reputable bodies alike.
A former acquaintance of mine who was in the CIA told me that when it’s like this it’s a deliberate ploy by government agencies feeding these stories to the right people who will tell them in order to hide the truth in a sea of lies.
Which means all we will ever know for sure is that the truth - which we will never know - about Covid 19 is something deemed worth hiding!
On that, make up your own conspiracy theory as it will be as near to the truth as any other!
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Post by daveu on Apr 1, 2020 12:57:09 GMT
As for figures being wrong - does anyone think ours are correct? I'd guess that they are out by a factor of at least two, but probably a lot more. For a start, there are all those people who have had Convid-19 and had no symptoms, then there are (probably thousands) who have had something (there are still all the usual colds and flu going round) but don't know what it was. But the thing that most skews the figures is that many (most?) cases simply aren't reported. If you got it now, how would the government know? Would you ring your doctor, just to let them know? Would you make 15 calls to 111 and spend hours hanging on the phone just to make sure the official figures were accurate? Deaths, of course, are easier to get right, as they have to be registered, but it was only last night that we discovered that the government has only been recording Convid-19 deaths that happened in hospitals. And then there's the confusion over what exactly people die of. My dad, for instance had dementia and Parkinson's, but his death certificate says cause of death pneumonia. So, British figures are almost certainly way out as well, possibly not even recording a fraction of the true picture. But are the government "lying"? The only way you could have accurate figures would be to test every single person in the country at least fortnightly. Everyone knows the figures are an estimate. No need to make a big thing of it.
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Post by jdl on Apr 1, 2020 14:12:04 GMT
They aren't an estimate at all, they are a count of the known cases. They make no attempt to estimate the ones they don't know of. In fact they rarely mention that, unless challenged.
But my point wasn't about the numbers it was about this assumption that China is "lying" because the numbers are assumed to be wrong, whereas our numbers are almost certainly equally 'wrong', but nobody accuses us of lying.
The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards.
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Post by Fed up with PC views only on Apr 1, 2020 16:44:48 GMT
They aren't an estimate at all, they are a count of the known cases. They make no attempt to estimate the ones they don't know of. In fact they rarely mention that, unless challenged. But my point wasn't about the numbers it was about this assumption that China is "lying" because the numbers are assumed to be wrong, whereas our numbers are almost certainly equally 'wrong', but nobody accuses us of lying. The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards. But their standards are pretty low, so the data, as it has been from the start, is unreliable. That's why extrapolations have been difficult, Crap in, crap out. As is most of the news right now. 5G is a big story though, and whether it is linked to Covid 19 (Conspiracy theory?) or not, whether it also is from China (or not?), and whether birds are actually falling out of the sky (or not?) it is a valid area of concern as the big mobile network companies deliberate silence over what damage mobile phone emissions do to human beings has been going since the first handheld devices, and as 5g is more advanced, it probably is more damaging to humankind than 2G, 3G, 4G. I know this as I used to work in that industry - so 5G will be no different, possibly worse. Maybe that's why the 5G story is being deliberately "muddied" with links to Covid 19 - so that the truth of the damage to humans of mobile networks can be easily dismissed as nonsense by dismissing its link with Coronavirus. Who knows?
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Post by jdl on Apr 1, 2020 19:22:14 GMT
They aren't an estimate at all, they are a count of the known cases. They make no attempt to estimate the ones they don't know of. In fact they rarely mention that, unless challenged. But my point wasn't about the numbers it was about this assumption that China is "lying" because the numbers are assumed to be wrong, whereas our numbers are almost certainly equally 'wrong', but nobody accuses us of lying. The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards. But their standards are pretty low, so the data, as it has been from the start, is unreliable. That's why extrapolations have been difficult, Crap in, crap out. As is most of the news right now. 5G is a big story though, and whether it is linked to Covid 19 (Conspiracy theory?) or not, whether it also is from China (or not?), and whether birds are actually falling out of the sky (or not?) it is a valid area of concern as the big mobile network companies deliberate silence over what damage mobile phone emissions do to human beings has been going since the first handheld devices, and as 5g is more advanced, it probably is more damaging to humankind than 2G, 3G, 4G. I know this as I used to work in that industry - so 5G will be no different, possibly worse. Maybe that's why the 5G story is being deliberately "muddied" with links to Covid 19 - so that the truth of the damage to humans of mobile networks can be easily dismissed as nonsense by dismissing its link with Coronavirus. Who knows? Bit late for April Fools...
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Post by daveu on Apr 1, 2020 21:22:11 GMT
They aren't an estimate at all, they are a count of the known cases. They make no attempt to estimate the ones they don't know of. In fact they rarely mention that, unless challenged. But my point wasn't about the numbers it was about this assumption that China is "lying" because the numbers are assumed to be wrong, whereas our numbers are almost certainly equally 'wrong', but nobody accuses us of lying. The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards. Of course the other thing nobody takes account of is that certainly in Italy, everyone with COVID-19 who dies is recorded as dying of covid-19 regardless of whether they had another condition that was killing them anyway. I suspect it is the same in most countries so if you discount people who were dying anyway the actual death rate is quite a bit lower than reported.
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Post by hongkongstone on Apr 2, 2020 5:05:24 GMT
@oxford glad to see you have picked up on some of my posts. 😊 Interesting points to note currently is that 20 million mobile phone accounts in PRC have gone silent and cremtion urns are in short supply. Cremations in Wuhan are up 5 fold compared with the same time last year implying at least an extra 6000 deaths per month in that area alone. PRC has banned all international visitors (even though I have a multiple entry visa I am not allowed in now) because they obviously don't want people to see the truth of the CCPvirus. Why do you think they kicked out those US journalists a couple of weeks ago and have refused all offers of outside aid from day one? This CCPvirus does have a second wave that we are currently experiencing in HK but PRC is in denial (making up fantasy stories about it being spread by foreigners). The UK and rest of the world should watch and learn. Do not fall into complacency after a few weeks. FYI all bars and restaurants in HK currently require temperature checks as you walk in the door before you can be served. Maximum 4 persons at a table (otherwise mahjong parlours are screwed) and all tables minimum 1.5m apart.
Interesting article on the Sky News website which includes the quote...
"And according to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40."
I don't think anyone would be surprised if this was the case and I expect Trump will plug the "China virus" theme for all it's worth given the forthcoming Presidential Election.
It should by rights be called the 'CCP virus' rather than 'China virus'' for the cover up perpetrated by CCP officials since last Autumn, including arresting doctors who tried to whistleblow and spreading false information. The majority of Chinese people I know are proud of their nationality but hate the communist party and it's methods of suppression. And for your refrence, 20 million mobile phone accounts have gone silent in PRC this year alone and cremations in Wuhan are up 5 fold over the same time last year implying at least 6000 deaths from the virus per month alone, and that is only one city. To give you an idea of the provenance of reported statistics from the PRC each year EVERY province reports a higher GDP than the national AVERAGE!
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Post by hongkongstone on Apr 2, 2020 5:10:06 GMT
Interesting article on the Sky News website which includes the quote... "And according to reports this weekend, the British government has been told the Chinese may have lied about the extent of their own outbreak by a factor of 40." I don't think anyone would be surprised if this was the case and I expect Trump will plug the "China virus" theme for all it's worth given the forthcoming Presidential Election.
I wouldn't trust the Chinese government any more than I'd trust Putin, but "lied" and "by a factor of 40" is just silly. No doubt they they tried to cover it up in the early days, and equally no doubt they are probably massaging the figures now. But if they were trying to cover it up now, why admit that they are now partially going back into lockdown because they are facing a second wave of infection? Too much hot air and silliness about this pandemic - you'd think the facts on their own would be worrying enough, without having to make stuff up or indulge in conspiracies. Trust me they are still covering up. The reported growth rate is too linear to be true and Guangdong reports no deaths wheras there are plenty of viral videos of body bags being carted off. Chinese officials get routinely punished (demoted or imprisoned) for bad statistics in their region - even if it is not their fault. This engenders a culture of falsification. You only have to look at the harvest production figures and the resultant famine from the so-called "Great Leap Forward" to understand that the population are considered expendable by the CCP.
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Post by hongkongstone on Apr 2, 2020 5:12:42 GMT
As for figures being wrong - does anyone think ours are correct? I'd guess that they are out by a factor of at least two, but probably a lot more. For a start, there are all those people who have had Convid-19 and had no symptoms, then there are (probably thousands) who have had something (there are still all the usual colds and flu going round) but don't know what it was. But the thing that most skews the figures is that many (most?) cases simply aren't reported. If you got it now, how would the government know? Would you ring your doctor, just to let them know? Would you make 15 calls to 111 and spend hours hanging on the phone just to make sure the official figures were accurate? Deaths, of course, are easier to get right, as they have to be registered, but it was only last night that we discovered that the government has only been recording Convid-19 deaths that happened in hospitals. And then there's the confusion over what exactly people die of. My dad, for instance had dementia and Parkinson's, but his death certificate says cause of death pneumonia. So, British figures are almost certainly way out as well, possibly not even recording a fraction of the true picture. But are the government "lying"? The only way the figures are wrong is by not carrying out enough testing (Agent Orange's plan). Places that have the virus under control, e.g. Germany, Taiwan & South Korea, have done so by mass testing as early as possible.
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Post by hongkongstone on Apr 2, 2020 5:14:52 GMT
The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards. No they haven't. Whatever you think of the CCP they will always stoop lower than you can imagine. It took me many years here to realise that even though my nature is to give people the benefit of doubt. You cannot trust the CCP. Have you not seen the videos of people in China being literally boarded into their apartments with the authorities welding up doors and refused hospital entry?
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Post by hongkongstone on Apr 2, 2020 5:18:47 GMT
They aren't an estimate at all, they are a count of the known cases. They make no attempt to estimate the ones they don't know of. In fact they rarely mention that, unless challenged. But my point wasn't about the numbers it was about this assumption that China is "lying" because the numbers are assumed to be wrong, whereas our numbers are almost certainly equally 'wrong', but nobody accuses us of lying. The ironic thing is that China has actually been astonishingly open about all this by their standards. Of course the other thing nobody takes account of is that certainly in Italy, everyone with COVID-19 who dies is recorded as dying of covid-19 regardless of whether they had another condition that was killing them anyway. I suspect it is the same in most countries so if you discount people who were dying anyway the actual death rate is quite a bit lower than reported. And it was transmitted to Italy via the hundreds of thousands of Chinese cheap labour working in the fashion manufacturing industry around Milan. Thank you 'Belt & Road', the first time Europe has copied something from the PRC rather than the other way around for a change.
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Post by 61666 on Apr 2, 2020 7:38:35 GMT
Safe to say the government's honeymoon period is now over. Felt concerned at the time when the chief scientist seemed to be suggesting there was no easy way to test everybody and instead was pinning hopes on the 'antibody test' to know who had had it and could safely go back to work. Putting economics ahead of health maybe? Wasn't it over a week ago it was being touted that we'd all be able to order one of these online? Yet now we are told it is still some way off. The graphs show that it is either the totalitarian states, or those with strong leadership, capable of doing almost the same, who seem to be getting on top of things. As for Uncle Sam, this crisis simply shows what limited intelligence Donald Trump has. He might be good at a few things, but is completely unaware of the bigger picture, probably because he only takes notice of what he wants to see. His countrymen are, collectively, little better, with a reported 38% increase in gun sales and even New Yorkers having to be stopped from playing basketball by taking the hoops down. The USA has the potential to be the biggest clusterfukc of all in this, though am guessing that third world and developing countries may ultimately pay the biggest price.
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Post by jdh80 on Apr 2, 2020 8:35:04 GMT
Talking to Americans on a daily basis, they are concerned that only a few areas have been told to go into lock down as they said their fellow country men and women will take it as an excuse that it doesn't impact them and not heed the warnings, similar to a lot of the self indulgent weiners we have in this country.
Florida for example even last night the locals were saying spring breakers from all over the country who had travelled there were throwing beach parties etc.
The way trump seems to run America is a bit like negotiating with a child to get things done, for example if you want a child to do something they don't want to they'll sit there stick their fingers in their ears and make a noise or constantly shout I'm not listening, all very similar to trump, if he's asked about things he doesn't want to deal with all you get is it's fake news people are making it up, there's no such thing.
I did see one video online can't find it now from one of the southern states where guns are being bought like loo rolls here a few weeks back, the reason for this was they thought that coronavirus was going the bring about a zombie apocalypse and they were readying themselves to shoot any zombies they encounter, gotta love some of them southern boys, they're usually the ones on the news for all the stupid stories, kidnapped by aliens, talking to Jesus, accusing birds (pigeons crows etc) of being spies from russia/china/korea, etc.
Also found out this week that our companies manufacturing facilities in China had been closed between early nov and late January due to covid-19 it reopened but is already closed again. We had been trying to communicate with them during this time but no response at all, someone from the American head office actually flew out there to visit the factory to see why we had lost lines of communication only to find it completely shut down.
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