Financial thread

[Deleted]

The bond markets are warning of trouble ahead - Inflation.

Worried.

[Deleted]

Mar 5, 2021 4:07:29 GMT sennockian69 said:

The bond markets are warning of trouble ahead - Inflation.

Worried.

At least Powell is sanguine about it. I think he has been taking acting classes. The problems are mounting up for the Fed, with several holes in the boat to plug. The latest alarm bell returns in the form of problems with the Repo market, the butterfly this time seems to be related to hedge funds shorting treasuries as yields rise, apparently trying to force down prices to buy at lower levels.

[Deleted]

Inflation / Deflation how will it all end ?

Me says the money printer will go mad.

[Deleted]

There has been some interesting trading during the last two Friday US trading sessions. Both saw rapid increases in bond yields and a consequential sell off in the markets during the morning sessions, followed by vast inflows of cash buying up Dow stocks during afternoon trading.

I can't see this buying activity being normal trading behaviour, as buying the dips usually sees tech stocks being bought up, but not this time. It almost seems that some unknown organisation is looking to artificially support the market. If the markets were allowed to continue to sell off bigtime on a Friday, with bond yields continuing to rise, the odds on a blood bath on the following Monday, starting in Asia, could be fairly high. Maybe the Fed are starting to access their toolbox, and are starting to buy up stock more aggressively, albeit covertly.

In recent weeks, distribution selling by institutions has started to increase. That, combined with lukewarm market reaction to recent Fed rhetoric, and the Biden stimulus announcements, does not seem to fit with the way the last two Friday trading sessions have played out. One thing is for sure, when the Robinhooders get their $1400 stimulus cheque, they won't be buying Dow stocks.

[Deleted]

Another Saturday surge for BTC

[Deleted]

At the moment cryptos are behaving more like an asset then a currency, although granted there are times it does seem to act as a safe haven to a degree, this perception by the market doesn't appear to be set in stone. When bond yields rose and markets sold of during the last two Friday sessions, the cryptos sold off along with the market, and money flowed into the US$. It feels that if there were to be a broad market selloff, cryptos would be taken down with the rest of the market, like any other asset, and despite it's weakness, large sums of money would still flow into the $US.

Although with digital currencies on the way, it looks like cryptos are here to stay, personally I would not feel totally safe investing large sums into the current cryptos unless there was some guarantee that some form of controlling legislation outlawing them would not be implemented by various countries. Having said that I can't see them doing that so blatantly. Maybe the adoption of a digital dollar would be enough muscle to apply the necessary control. The Fed never likes to lose control. Personally I feel much safer with a Blockchain ETF then with any individual crypto, even if it is also taken down in the event of a market crash, as I feel it has more of a chance of being here to stay, at least until some other disruptive technology comes along.

[Deleted]

don’t think I’d disagree with anything you’ve said there, not least that crypto’s will most likely sell off along with most else, come the day;

likewise, anything other than a very modest punt would lead to a lot of sleepless nights, though having already been more than 80% underwater a couple of years ago with it, I see the 30-50% pull backs as part & parcel; and yes, although it’s no longer an option (I guess you can still buy it via non UK platform?) XBit is my play

[Deleted]

Will the 7 month long downtrend in Gold come to an end soon? Putting any possibility of price manipulation to one side, currently, suppressed prices seems to be dependant on a combination of overall stock market confidence, and bond yield strength, along with the correlated rise in the $US. However correlations do change, and the Gold price has risen along with bond yields and the $US in the past. I suspect that any major move upward for Gold (and Silver) will eventually correlate with fear and a flight to safety, particularly if there is a substantial move out of cryptos.

From my own perspective, this downtrend is still a massive multi-month long bull flag, reminiscent of the 2008 bull flag, which can be clearly seen on the Gold weekly chart. This price action should be very healthy for Gold, as usually the longer the bull flag consolidation the bigger the upside potential.

If the upper downtrend line of this bull flag is broken, and closes on a weekly basis, probably around the $1800 mark, my target for Gold will then be around $2200 in late fall/ early winter this year, and after a little consolidation (pullback/sideways action bull flag), $2500 sometime in mid 2022. Of course if everybody starts to pile in, things could get parabolic again, and these targets, and time frames could easily be way off and very conservative when viewed in hindsight.

Until the upper downtrend line is broken, we could still see some downside movement in the price in the short term, possibly even into the $1600 area especially if weak hands capitulate, and start to get washed out.

[Deleted]

With the fear index breaking below 12m lows today, I’m reminded that somebody, can’t imagine who, once said something about being greedy when all around were fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

[Deleted]

Apr 9, 2021 22:03:50 GMT pwe said:

With the fear index breaking below 12m lows today, I’m reminded that somebody, can’t imagine who, once said something about being greedy when all around were fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

Greedy,I'll tell you about greedy. Two sodding little grey squirrels ate most of my cheese and onion Kettle chips today the little furry fuckers🐿🐿🐿🐿🐿

[Deleted]

Apr 10, 2021 0:10:29 GMT sword65 said:

Apr 9, 2021 22:03:50 GMT pwe said:

With the fear index breaking below 12m lows today, I’m reminded that somebody, can’t imagine who, once said something about being greedy when all around were fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

Greedy,I'll tell you about greedy. Two sodding little grey squirrels ate most of my cheese and onion Kettle chips today the little furry fuckers🐿🐿🐿🐿🐿

How did two American Tree Rats get to them. Did you leave them outside, or are they getting so bold and cunning that they now work in pairs and are stating to invade people's property?

[Deleted]

Apr 9, 2021 22:03:50 GMT pwe said:

With the fear index breaking below 12m lows today, I’m reminded that somebody, can’t imagine who, once said something about being greedy when all around were fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.

So true. The Fed are doing their best to keep things calm and optimistic. To date it has been easy for them to control things with little effort as trading volume has been so low. However that control will be very difficult to maintain if an external event creates heavy selling volume.

[Deleted]

Apr 10, 2021 13:19:33 GMT @cgr said:

Apr 10, 2021 0:10:29 GMT sword65 said:

Greedy,I'll tell you about greedy. Two sodding little grey squirrels ate most of my cheese and onion Kettle chips today the little furry fuckers🐿🐿🐿🐿🐿

How did two American Tree Rats get to them. Did you leave them outside, or are they getting so bold and cunning that they now work in pairs and are stating to invade people's property?

I put the open packet down on my bench to answer the phone and the little sods jumped up and helped themselves whilst I was talking to the rheumatology nurse.

[stainese]

Get your own back. The little sods are perfectly edible and can be cooked just like chicken.

[Deleted]

Mar 8, 2021 17:29:51 GMT sennockian69 said:

Inflation / Deflation how will it all end ?

Me says the money printer will go mad.

Here is an interesting interview. Probably spot on in my view.

soundcloud.com/superinvestors/43-diego-parrilla-on-appreciating-the-opportunity-set-in-antibubbles