It's back again! Prediction League - 24-25

[Deleted]

2-1
2,345

[garstone]

Stones 2 Slough 0
Att: 2208

[Deleted]

Stoners 2 - Slough 1
Att 2,245

[Deleted]

Stones 1 - Slough 1

Att 2,097

[Deleted]

Just realised there is a fundamental flaw with the scoring structure of this game - it's easily gamed.

For instance, just predicting every game, gives you 46 points. Then you can gain 30+ points just randomly predicting the result - assuming an equal chance of win, draw or lose for each game. Or you can try basing your predictions on last season's record (24 11 11) and going for a ratio of 2-1-1 (w-d-l) instead. That's 45 points if you bias your predictions towards wins.

There isn't much point (ha ha) in bothering with the predicted crowd, as the results are totally unpredictable and you can be very close and still lose all points - anything gained there is a bonus. But the same isn't true about accurately predicting the score - some scores are more likely than others. Last season, for instance, the most common scores scores were: 1-1 (9), 1-0 (7), 2-0 (6) and 2-1 (4). So, on the assumption that this season will be like the last one, you can slightly game the system by always predicting 1-1 or, more positively, 1-0 or 2-0. As getting the correct score gives you 5 points, even if you only get two or three right, that's valuable extra points.

So, if you follow these 'rules' you're fairly likely to get at least 75 to 90 points. And, if you stick to predicting the most likely scores, you could easily add another 15 or so - bringing the possible total to 105 - which could easily be enough to get you into the top 10.

Without, strictly speaking, actually 'predicting' anything!

[Deleted]

And, in answer to the most obvious question, no, I'm not going to do this! Apart from just being too fickle and inconsistent to stick to it, it's already too late this season.

But next season - who knows?!

[Harry]

1. - 0 to Stones
Att 2,303

[jte]

Maidstone 5 Slough 1
Att. 2176

[Deleted]

Stones 4 Slough 1
Att: 2,223

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2024 17:11:52 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Just realised there is a fundamental flaw with the scoring structure of this game - it's easily gamed.

For instance, just predicting every game, gives you 46 points. Then you can gain 30+ points just randomly predicting the result - assuming an equal chance of win, draw or lose for each game. Or you can try basing your predictions on last season's record (24 11 11) and going for a ratio of 2-1-1 (w-d-l) instead. That's 45 points if you bias your predictions towards wins.

There isn't much point (ha ha) in bothering with the predicted crowd, as the results are totally unpredictable and you can be very close and still lose all points - anything gained there is a bonus. But the same isn't true about accurately predicting the score - some scores are more likely than others. Last season, for instance, the most common scores scores were: 1-1 (9), 1-0 (7), 2-0 (6) and 2-1 (4). So, on the assumption that this season will be like the last one, you can slightly game the system by always predicting 1-1 or, more positively, 1-0 or 2-0. As getting the correct score gives you 5 points, even if you only get two or three right, that's valuable extra points.

So, if you follow these 'rules' you're fairly likely to get at least 75 to 90 points. And, if you stick to predicting the most likely scores, you could easily add another 15 or so - bringing the possible total to 105 - which could easily be enough to get you into the top 10.

Without, strictly speaking, actually 'predicting' anything

Don't tease me....  

[Deleted]

I'm going to go with 2-1 to Stones in front of 2168, and JDL if you're going to talk dirty stats, let's do it properly but you have to buy me dinner first and we're not going to a motel this time...

[Deleted]

Oct 18, 2024 14:56:13 GMT yorkshirestone said:

I'm going to go with 2-1 to Stones in front of 2168, and JDL if you're going to talk dirty stats, let's do it properly but you have to buy me dinner first and we're not going to a motel this time...

I can tell deflection when I see it...

[Deleted]

Well it worked last time so I'm sticking with 2-0 to the Stones (v Slough).

Att' 2420

[Deleted]

Stones 2-1 Slough
Att. 2233

[Deleted]

Stones 1-0 Sluff
Att: 2192