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Post by jdl on Nov 5, 2018 22:55:17 GMT
We always seem to do better away than at home, but this season it's freaky, even by our standards:
. Away (10 games) we are 13th after 10 games, with 4 wins and 1 draw (10 4 1 5 9 12 -3 13).
But home (9 games), we are 23rd, with 5 points, kept off the bottom only by our win against Barrow (9 1 2 6 6 13 -7 5)
On current form (6 games), the difference is nothing short of weird - 9th away (10 pts), but bottom at home (1 pt)! .
Why?! 3G, the width of the pitch, home expectation, the crowd... The difference between 9th and 24th, 10 points and 1, is just too odd to be down to chance. Of course, we've only started winning recently, so that will screw with the stats, but why then is our form since we started winning (6 games) even worse?
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Post by Sennockian69 on Nov 5, 2018 23:03:10 GMT
We always seem to do better away than at home, but this season it's freaky, even by our standards: . Away (10 games) we are 13th after 10 games, with 4 wins and 1 draw (10 4 1 5 9 12 -3 13). But home (9 games), we are 23rd, with 5 points, kept off the bottom only by our win against Barrow (9 1 2 6 6 13 -7 5) On current form (6 games), the difference is nothing short of weird - 9th away (10 pts), but bottom at home (1 pt)! . Why?! 3G, the lack of width of the pitch, buckling under the weight of the home expectation, the crowd... The difference between 9th and 24th, 10 points and 1, is just too odd to be down to chance.There we have it.
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Post by Bernie on Nov 5, 2018 23:15:58 GMT
Sooner or later, we are going to give someone a damned good thrashing at home.
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Post by porkystone on Nov 5, 2018 23:47:31 GMT
It's another piece of stimulating analysis from JDL. Taking it a bit further, the Current League Positions of the teams we've played at home are as follows:
We've beaten - team in 17th We've drawn with - teams in 9th & 19th We've lost to - teams in 2nd, 11th, 7th, 4th, 14th & 5th.
Conclusions ? - we've already played ( and lost to ) some strong teams at home. So nothing to worry about ?? Points to a comfortable lower mid table finish. All depends anyway on what happens on Jan 19 + the transfers.
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Post by jdl on Nov 6, 2018 0:24:00 GMT
From what I've seen of the NL this season, no team has really impressed (certainly no one has come close to Billericay pre-season) - the difference between good and bad this season is a lot less than it usually is. And I think this is the key to our somewhat erratic results - on our day we can beat almost anyone, but equally we can get turned over by almost anyone as well. It will be interesting to see how we do if Harry really has turned us around and Barnet is just the beginning. Wrexham's visit will be a good indication of just how far we've come - I wouldn't be surprised if it's a lot closer match than we might otherwise have expected.
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Post by jdl on Nov 6, 2018 0:37:55 GMT
As for January, etc, what happens re the loan players is going to be the key to this season. If we lose key players (Smith and Turgott being the obvious ones, but two or three others would hurt us too) and don't manage to replace them, then we could be in trouble.
Everyone remembers how the loss of Pigott (and, to a lesser extent, Hines) affected us, but what people don't seem to remember is how well we were doing before then. From the time Jay rebuilt the side after the 'mid-season collapse' in our first season, until we lost Pigott the following season, we were actually one of the better sides in the division, easily on play-off form, if not better. If we could have taken the end of our first season and the start of the following one and joined them together as one season, O&T would have been having kittens about 3G and capacity. And that included the rebuilding of the team when Flish and Mills went, and the transition to 'full-time'.
And yet that all fell apart and we ended up with another 'mid-season collapse' and another rebuild - all because we lost one (or two) key players. O&T have got to do their utmost to prevent that from happening again this season.
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Post by 61666 on Nov 6, 2018 8:33:18 GMT
It would be interesting for someone to tot up home v away since we started at the Gallagher. May be wrong, but have a sense that when we got promoted from the Ryman Premier, even then it was on the strength of our away form. Not terrible at home, but prone to losing the lead late on in games, with the last few minutes often tense and similar in the NS. We all know what has happened since and I think it was only in the last quarter of our first season that we have actually put any sort of winning run together at home. On top of the reasons already suggested, I would add the following. Firstly, the G is a very nice ground to play in. There are bigger stadiums, but all too often, like Halifax and Gateshead, they are barely 10% full. It benefits from being a new build, unlike the Hodge podge of places like Ebbsfleet or the dump that is Braintree or the Dover gulag. Mostly, it feels full too, because it is still not that big. Hence, teams seem to enjoy playing here, on a true surface, with a good atmosphere. Secondly, I still believe we get a raw deal at home from referees. No Fergie factor here, officials are either incompetent, out to shaft us, or both. Home fans are always biased of course, but I would guess we have missed ten points or more a season, at home, due to bad decisions. Thirdly, and this has been building up over the last two seasons, poor home form leeches confidence from our supporters. Expectations fall and eventually, even a handful of away fans make more noise than the home ones. We can but hope that the 350 who went to Barnet can create a positive atmosphere on Saturday, for that could be the start of some genuine home advantage again. That and the team actually playing well of course. One follows the other and vice versa.
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Post by jdl on Nov 6, 2018 8:55:50 GMT
You could be right about the positive effect of the general atmosphere on away sides. But a really vocal home support must make a big difference at this level - most visiting teams won't be used to it.
If the Elvis End singers could duplicate the wall of noise we had at Barnet it would be fantastic. I'm sure that gave us a huge advantage - maybe even won it for us. When you're used to playing in a nearly empty stadium, it must be intimidating to have that noise all game. And it must have given our players a huge boost too - they certainly seemed to have a level of confidence I haven't seen this season.
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Post by porkystone on Nov 6, 2018 9:29:42 GMT
It would be interesting for someone to tot up home v away since we started at the Gallagher.[ quote] You're a very naughty person, because sure as anything I had better things to do this morning than this So here we are: Season 2012 / 13 - Ryman South: H: 12 - 6 - 3 A: 14 - 4 - 3 Season 2013 / 14 - Ryman Premier: H: 12 - 10 - 1 A: 11 - 2 - 10 Season 2014 / 15 - Ryman Premier: H: 18 - 4 - 1 A: 11 - 7 - 5 Season 2015 / 16 - Vanarama South: H: 12 - 2 - 7 A: 12 - 3 - 6 Season 2016 / 17 - Vanarama National: H: 8 - 5 - 10 A: 8 - 5 - 10 Season 2017 / 18 - Vanarama National: H: 6 - 9 - 8 A: 7 - 6 - 10 Conclusions ? Only in 2014 / 15 was the G really a fortress, it has indeed been a struggle from Ryman South upwards. Why is that - ……………….
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Post by jakeyboi on Nov 6, 2018 9:39:03 GMT
You could be right about the positive effect of the general atmosphere on away sides. But a really vocal home support must make a big difference at this level - most visiting teams won't be used to it. If the Elvis End singers could duplicate the wall of noise we had at Barnet it would be fantastic. I'm sure that gave us a huge advantage - maybe even won it for us. When you're used to playing in a nearly empty stadium, it must be intimidating to have that noise all game. And it must have given our players a huge boost too - they certainly seemed to have a level of confidence I haven't seen this season. Why just the Elvis end of the ground? there,s four sides to the stadium so might be better to ask ALL fans to cheer the team on, even you an the other old codgers in the main stand could help.
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Post by pedant on Nov 6, 2018 9:51:57 GMT
As for January, etc, what happens re the loan players is going to be the key to this season. If we lose key players (Smith and Turgott being the obvious ones, but two or three others would hurt us too) and don't manage to replace them, then we could be in trouble. Everyone remembers how the loss of Pigott (and, to a lesser extent, Hines) affected us, but what people don't seem to remember is how well we were doing before then. From the time Jay rebuilt the side after the 'mid-season collapse' in our first season, until we lost Pigott the following season, we were actually one of the better sides in the division, easily on play-off form, if not better. If we could have taken the end of our first season and the start of the following one and joined them together as one season, O&T would have been having kittens about 3G and capacity. And that included the rebuilding of the team when Flish and Mills went, and the transition to 'full-time'. And yet that all fell apart and we ended up with another 'mid-season collapse' and another rebuild - all because we lost one (or two) key players. O&T have got to do their utmost to prevent that from happening again this season. I thought the same, until ....
I looked at the facts which, unfortunately, I didn't keep but my recollection was that the 'best' 46 consecutive league results spread across the two seasons still only got us total points in the mid 60's.
My recollection could be wrong but I'm not going to check it again.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2018 9:59:55 GMT
Seems to me that the lack of width of the pitch is a major contributing factor to the lack of points at the Gallagher. Could be the reason why, more often then not, HW seems to be using a narrowish formation at home. Not sure what the dimensions actually are at the Gallagher, but at Barnet, which I understand is a middling 66m wide (45m-90m permitted width), there did seem to be quite a bit of space on the flanks, which I thought McLennan used to good effect when supporting Turgott.
I would posit that, providing you have the right type of players in a squad, a wider pitch gives that extra dimension that potentially allows a team to dominate the opposition in attack formation, getting to the byeline, crossing/passing, and creating that extra space to attack into. On the whole, it seems that narrow pitches make it relatively easy for visitors to defend, attack on the counter, nick a goal, and shut up shop. Job done. This makes it difficult for the home team, who should be dominating the opposition, from getting anything from the game, especially if they go behind from, as the Stones have done quite a few times over past couple of years, a poor defensive error.
I couldn't find a site with pitch dimensions for NL grounds, but it would be interesting to look back to see how the Stones performed on different pitch widths over the last two seasons, on both subjective (comments posted on this site after a match) and objective levels.
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Post by pwe on Nov 6, 2018 11:41:53 GMT
I got the impression the first time I saw the newly laid surface (15 months ago?) that the touchlines had been brought in by maybe 4 or 5 feet, doesn’t sound much but I’d agree that we do appear to play better on some of the wider away pitches
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Post by 1018 on Nov 6, 2018 11:49:11 GMT
The narrow pitch also makes it easier for teams like Harrogate to use the long-throw tactic.
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Post by pedant on Nov 6, 2018 11:54:46 GMT
I got the impression the first time I saw the newly laid surface (15 months ago?) that the touchlines had been brought in by maybe 4 or 5 feet, doesn’t sound much but I’d agree that we do appear to play better on some of the wider away pitches I know time flies when you're having fun (and I realise you were 'guessing') but the pitch got relaid when we got promoted.
So that's 28 months ago. Or 15 home league wins from 55 attempts ago to be even more depressed.
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