Post by gromley on Dec 30, 2016 20:54:39 GMT
Just took a glance at the remaining fixtures. I think there's 23 points in there. So I think we can end the season on 49 points.
Do you think that'll be enough to stay up?
It doesn't matter where we get the points from - so long as we get the points!!
Looking at the last 10 years, we need anywhere between 40 points (2012-13) and 51 points (2013-14) to survive, with 45 or 46 looking the most common number. That's between 0.86 points per game and 1.11 points per game required.
If you look over the entire season to date (which you are), then we're picking up points at a rate of 1.125 points per game - more than enough to survive It doesn't matter who we got those points from!! Of course, the worry here is current form where we're clearly not on the pace needed.
To get to the lowest survival point (40 points) then we need 22 points from the remaining 30 games (0.73 points per game)
To get to a likely survival point (46 points) then we need 28 points from the remaining 30 games (0.93 points per game)
To get to the highest survival point (51 points) then we need 33 points from the remaining 30 games (1.10 points per game)
Current form over 4 games is 1 point (0.25 points per game)
Current form over 6 games is 4 points (0.67 points per game)
Current form over 8 games is 5 points (0.63 points per game)
Current form over 10 games is 9 points (0.9 points per game)
Looking at the last 10 years, we need anywhere between 40 points (2012-13) and 51 points (2013-14) to survive, with 45 or 46 looking the most common number. That's between 0.86 points per game and 1.11 points per game required.
If you look over the entire season to date (which you are), then we're picking up points at a rate of 1.125 points per game - more than enough to survive It doesn't matter who we got those points from!! Of course, the worry here is current form where we're clearly not on the pace needed.
To get to the lowest survival point (40 points) then we need 22 points from the remaining 30 games (0.73 points per game)
To get to a likely survival point (46 points) then we need 28 points from the remaining 30 games (0.93 points per game)
To get to the highest survival point (51 points) then we need 33 points from the remaining 30 games (1.10 points per game)
Current form over 4 games is 1 point (0.25 points per game)
Current form over 6 games is 4 points (0.67 points per game)
Current form over 8 games is 5 points (0.63 points per game)
Current form over 10 games is 9 points (0.9 points per game)
To get to the lowest survival point (40 points) then we need 14 points from the remaining 20 games (0.7 points per game)
To get to a likely survival point (46 points) then we need 20 points from the remaining 20 games (1.00 points per game)
To get to the highest survival point (51 points) then we need 25 points from the remaining 20 games (1.25 points per game)
Current form over 4 games is 4 points (1.0 points per game)
Current form over 6 games is 4 points (0.67 points per game)
Current form over 8 games is 4 points (0.5 points per game)
Current form over 10 games is 8 points (0.8 points per game)
I'd be very happy with 23 points from the remaining 20 games!