Around the National League.

[Deleted]

Not just told what a talent he is but on those few occasions he has played, he's looked very handy indeed.

It's all very odd because nearly all supporters you speak to have the same opinion

Jay gave him very little opportunity to shine. Will Harry give him a fair chance ?

Just seems so strange when other players have been allowed extended runs in the team to achieve so little.

[Deleted]

What I find more strange is the players that Jay didn’t use much were bombed out the club, but Jack is continually retained but doesn’t get a game!
Potential talent has to be given the opportunity to prove that potential, or else the talent could be wasted
Hopefully he’ll get his chance soon

[Deleted]

Likely we will not see Zavon Hines when Chesterfield visit next Saturday. Came on as sub after 55 mins and sent off nine mins later.
Would have been interesting to compare him with Blair Turgott. Spirites have been in freefall recently, so with Aldershot on Tuesday, could we suddenly find ourselves mid table (ISH), this time next week?
Not holding my breath, mind.

[Deleted]

I'm bored!

Attendences - up or down?

12 games in compared to last season's average (percent change):

Solihull Moors 28 %
Barrow 17 %
Wrexham 10 %
Leyton Orient 5 %
FC Halifax Town 2 %
Hartlepool United 0 %
Gateshead 0 %

Boreham Wood -1 %
Maidstone United -5 %
Bromley -7 %
Ebbsfleet United -7 %
AFC Fylde -9 %
Maidenhead United -11 %
Sutton United -18 %
Dagenham & Redbridge -19 %
Eastleigh -19 %
Aldershot Town -22 %
Dover Athletic -24 %

We are not alone...


Note - Some clubs (Eastleigh, Aldershot?) had NL Day free or low cost admission games in 2017/18, which made their av attendance look much better than it really was, and therefore this season's percentage drop look more dramatic.

[Deleted]

More stats:

Can we predict the relegated sides from league places this early in the season?

Well, this time last season the bottom four were:

Chester
Guiseley
Solihull Moors
Torquay

Three of those were in the drop zone for the rest of the season and were relegated.

It took Solihull nearly all season to break free, but they eventually made it in early April. They were briefly replaced by Barrow, and then, two weeks later, by Woking - who were then relegated.

But, this time last season, Woking were actually in the play-off places! They peaked at 3rd in two games time - only to then crash and burn. By the end of the year they had only gained another 9 points and had dropped to 14th (passing us on the way), and by April they had gained just 10 more points and were down to 19th. Two weeks later, they replaced Solihull in the drop zone (weirdly, having just won their first game in ages), and were relegated on the last day of the season on 48 points (1 point/place from safety).

So, if this means anything, we already know three of the relegation candidates, and no one is safe - even if they are currently at the top!

[Deleted]

Even more...


We've now had 32 seasons since automatic promotion began - 16 seasons with just one club being promoted, and 16 seasons with two.

How did they all do? (edited 23/9 to adjust for phoenix clubs - see note at end)


1987 - 2002 (single promotion):

9 non-league clubs promoted - 3 are still in the EFL, 3 are back in non-league, and 3 went bust

4 ex-League clubs promoted back up - 2 are still in the EFL, and 2 went bust

(no promotions for 3 years)



2003-2018 (double promotion):

11 non-league clubs promoted (see note on phoenix clubs below) - 9 are still in the EFL, 2 are back in non-league

21 ex-League clubs promoted back up (again, see note) - 16 are still in the EFL, 5 are back in non-league


Summary:

In the early years it was mostly non-league clubs getting promoted, at the expense of relegated ex-League clubs, but fewer than half of all promoted clubs are still in the EFL, and almost half went bust.

In the last 16 years the chance of promotion has switched substantially in favour of ex-League clubs (they are almost twice as likely to get promoted), but the non-league clubs who do get promoted are much more likely to stay in the EFL than in the early years. And promoted clubs no longer go bust!


A note on Phoenix clubs:

Phoenix clubs are a bugger for this analysis! I've included Wimbledon and Accrington as 'non-league' clubs, as they are essentially new clubs, but I've counted Newport County and Aldershot as phoenix 'ex-League clubs' (like us!). Given the low numbers involved, had I included them all in either category, it would have produced quite different results.

[Deleted]

This league has gone from the cream of non-league, to being dominated by BELTs and sugar-daddies. There are a few here on merit with financial rectitude, but the list shrinks every year.

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2018 0:04:17 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

More stats:

Can we predict the relegated sides from league places this early in the season?

Well, this time last season the bottom four were:

Chester
Guiseley
Solihull Moors
Torquay

Three of those were in the drop zone for the rest of the season and were relegated.

It took Solihull nearly all season to break free, but they eventually made it in early April. They were briefly replaced by Barrow, and then, two weeks later, by Woking - who were then relegated.

But, this time last season, Woking were actually in the play-off places! They peaked at 3rd in two games time - only to then crash and burn. By the end of the year they had only gained another 9 points and had dropped to 14th (passing us on the way), and by April they had gained just 10 more points and were down to 19th. Two weeks later, they replaced Solihull in the drop zone (weirdly, having just won their first game in ages), and were relegated on the last day of the season on 48 points (1 point/place from safety).

So, if this means anything, we already know three of the relegation candidates, and no one is safe - even if they are currently at the top!

Good job we won yesterday and are now outside the relegation zone. Hence only a 25% chance of going down now!

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2018 11:08:15 GMT @61666 said:

Sept 23, 2018 0:04:17 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

More stats:

Can we predict the relegated sides from league places this early in the season?

Well, this time last season the bottom four were:

Chester
Guiseley
Solihull Moors
Torquay

Three of those were in the drop zone for the rest of the season and were relegated.

It took Solihull nearly all season to break free, but they eventually made it in early April. They were briefly replaced by Barrow, and then, two weeks later, by Woking - who were then relegated.

But, this time last season, Woking were actually in the play-off places! They peaked at 3rd in two games time - only to then crash and burn. By the end of the year they had only gained another 9 points and had dropped to 14th (passing us on the way), and by April they had gained just 10 more points and were down to 19th. Two weeks later, they replaced Solihull in the drop zone (weirdly, having just won their first game in ages), and were relegated on the last day of the season on 48 points (1 point/place from safety).

So, if this means anything, we already know three of the relegation candidates, and no one is safe - even if they are currently at the top!

Good job we won yesterday and are now outside the relegation zone. Hence only a 25% chance of going down now!

My thoughts exactly!

Interesting stats though - I only (accidentally!) kept this data from last season, so I can't tell if it's anything like the normal pattern - perhaps last season was just a freak occurance? (Although I suspect it wasn't - most seasons you can usually see a couple of clubs who already look doomed even this early.) It would be interesting to know how 'predictive' the relegation zone actually is this early in the season, but I've no idea how to find individual weekly tables for previous seasons. Very frustrating, because the data must be out there!

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2018 11:58:12 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Sept 23, 2018 11:08:15 GMT @61666 said:

Good job we won yesterday and are now outside the relegation zone. Hence only a 25% chance of going down now!

My thoughts exactly!

Interesting stats though - I only (accidentally!) kept this data from last season, so I can't tell if it's anything like the normal pattern - perhaps last season was just a freak occurance? (Although I suspect it wasn't - most seasons you can usually see a couple of clubs who already look doomed even this early.) It would be interesting to know how 'predictive' the relegation zone actually is this early in the season, but I've no idea how to find individual weekly tables for previous seasons. Very frustrating, because the data must be out there!

Very frustrating indeed. A state you know well. 

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2018 12:13:17 GMT sennockian69 said:

Sept 23, 2018 11:58:12 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

My thoughts exactly!

Interesting stats though - I only (accidentally!) kept this data from last season, so I can't tell if it's anything like the normal pattern - perhaps last season was just a freak occurance? (Although I suspect it wasn't - most seasons you can usually see a couple of clubs who already look doomed even this early.) It would be interesting to know how 'predictive' the relegation zone actually is this early in the season, but I've no idea how to find individual weekly tables for previous seasons. Very frustrating, because the data must be out there!

Very frustrating indeed. A state you know well. 

Me? Stones and West Ham supporter, twice married, five kids, survived cancer, 65 in a week's time... Why would I be frustrated?!

[pmhnot]

Sept 23, 2018 12:32:02 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Sept 23, 2018 12:13:17 GMT sennockian69 said:

Very frustrating indeed. A state you know well. 

Me? Stones and West Ham supporter, twice married, five kids, survived cancer, 65 in a week's time... Why would I be frustrated?!

Ask your Mrs !?! ... She's also frustrated too ... apparently !! 🤣🤣🤣

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2018 11:58:12 GMT @johndaubneyslegs said:

Sept 23, 2018 11:08:15 GMT @61666 said:

Good job we won yesterday and are now outside the relegation zone. Hence only a 25% chance of going down now!

My thoughts exactly!

Interesting stats though - I only (accidentally!) kept this data from last season, so I can't tell if it's anything like the normal pattern - perhaps last season was just a freak occurance? (Although I suspect it wasn't - most seasons you can usually see a couple of clubs who already look doomed even this early.) It would be interesting to know how 'predictive' the relegation zone actually is this early in the season, but I've no idea how to find individual weekly tables for previous seasons. Very frustrating, because the data must be out there!

I have just found a table I'd kept (why?) from 28/10/16, and the bottom four teams were NFU, Braintree, Southport and Guiseley.

Guiseley were way adrift at the bottom, but somehow managed to survive, the other three went down. The other team to go down was York, who were 18th at the time.

So, judging by just the two seasons we've spent in the NL, it would seem that you can predict that three of the bottom four teams will go down. The problem is, of course, knoiwing which three!

The drop zone is a very dangerous place to be, even this early in the season - you have only a 1 in 4 chance of escaping.

[porkystone]

Chris Kinnear no longer manager of Dover, they ' need to move forward '.


kentishfootball.co.uk/news/doverathletic051018

[Deleted]

Sounds like an all too familiar tale.