Post by jdl on Jan 29, 2015 1:48:45 GMT
A while ago, a month or two into the season, we were discussing why this season’s attendance seemed to be down on last season – rather odd when you consider how well we were playing at the time, the good weather, etc.
But the gates picked up and now we’ve just had three consecutive gates of over 2,000. Wondering if this had just suddenly happened, or if there’s been a steady increase over the season, I stuck the home league attendances in a spreadsheet and hit ‘graph’ to see what it looked like.
And the answer is both ‘yes’ there has been a fairly steady increase over the season (our gates have gone up by about about 500 over 16 games – roughly a 33% increase) – and ‘no’, looked at in more detail, the attendance has been quite erratic, with the difference between lowest and highest gates being over a thousand - half capacity.
But the most striking thing about the graph is that it clearly falls into three phases. The early part of the season (first 6 home games) saw a fairly steady attendance around the 1,500 mark (the average was 1,556), going over 1,600 twice, but resolutely refusing to show signs of any improving trend. In fact the 6th home game (Harrow) saw the gate drop to 1,347, the lowest of the season at that time far (especially puzzling, as this was the first home game following our 10-0 thrashing of Littlehampton).
Then, just as it looked like attendances had peaked last season, things began to pick up. As cup action started in earnest, it seemed to have a positive effect on league attendances, and the next home game was the first this season to get a really good crowd (1,801). And the improvement continued with a gate of nearly 2,000, when Leiston visited. After that we dropped back down to ‘only’ 1,664 (oddly, for Dulwich), but then we were up again at the next home game, with a gate of 1,903. Over that period of four home games during the Cup run, the average gate rose to 1,801.
Perhaps predictably, with the end of our Cup run, our home gate crashed to only just over 1,000 (Leatherhead). But then something odd started to happen. For the next home game we were almost back up to our Cup run attendances (1,711), then the following game (Hendon) we were only 4 short of our first 2,000 league gate. And that was followed by three successive gates of over 2,000. The average attendance since the Leatherhead game has been 2,128 – we’re getting close to selling out for ‘ordinary’ home games!
So why this recent increase in attendance? Why, when we were playing so well and topping the table, were attendances stubbornly stuck around 1,500, and yet now, with Flisher and May out and our season stuttering, we’re averaging over 2,000? The publicity from the good Cup run and going top again presumably helped, but the recent increase not only coincides with a distinct dip in our form and the onset of the cold weather, but actually started immediately after Flisher was injured. And, whilst you can expect good gates against Tonbridge and Hendon, our second and third best gates have been against Enfield and Hornchurch!
And what now – after a near record breaking crowd sees us soundly beaten by a mid-table side, without even putting up much of a fight? Will all those people, and more, come back for Witham? Will this increase continue until we start having to shut fans out, or has the bubble been burst by the Enfield debacle? If the bubble hasn’t burst and this trend continues, we’ll hit capacity pretty soon. However, that’s a big ‘if’ – if there’s one thing this season has shown pretty conclusively, it’s that you can’t predict attendances!
But, what if this is a real trend – with continuing success comes a steady increase in gates? If we do go up this season, then presumably we’ll get even larger gates in the Conference - and, even with the main stand extension, the capacity will still only be around 2,600...
But the gates picked up and now we’ve just had three consecutive gates of over 2,000. Wondering if this had just suddenly happened, or if there’s been a steady increase over the season, I stuck the home league attendances in a spreadsheet and hit ‘graph’ to see what it looked like.
And the answer is both ‘yes’ there has been a fairly steady increase over the season (our gates have gone up by about about 500 over 16 games – roughly a 33% increase) – and ‘no’, looked at in more detail, the attendance has been quite erratic, with the difference between lowest and highest gates being over a thousand - half capacity.
But the most striking thing about the graph is that it clearly falls into three phases. The early part of the season (first 6 home games) saw a fairly steady attendance around the 1,500 mark (the average was 1,556), going over 1,600 twice, but resolutely refusing to show signs of any improving trend. In fact the 6th home game (Harrow) saw the gate drop to 1,347, the lowest of the season at that time far (especially puzzling, as this was the first home game following our 10-0 thrashing of Littlehampton).
Then, just as it looked like attendances had peaked last season, things began to pick up. As cup action started in earnest, it seemed to have a positive effect on league attendances, and the next home game was the first this season to get a really good crowd (1,801). And the improvement continued with a gate of nearly 2,000, when Leiston visited. After that we dropped back down to ‘only’ 1,664 (oddly, for Dulwich), but then we were up again at the next home game, with a gate of 1,903. Over that period of four home games during the Cup run, the average gate rose to 1,801.
Perhaps predictably, with the end of our Cup run, our home gate crashed to only just over 1,000 (Leatherhead). But then something odd started to happen. For the next home game we were almost back up to our Cup run attendances (1,711), then the following game (Hendon) we were only 4 short of our first 2,000 league gate. And that was followed by three successive gates of over 2,000. The average attendance since the Leatherhead game has been 2,128 – we’re getting close to selling out for ‘ordinary’ home games!
So why this recent increase in attendance? Why, when we were playing so well and topping the table, were attendances stubbornly stuck around 1,500, and yet now, with Flisher and May out and our season stuttering, we’re averaging over 2,000? The publicity from the good Cup run and going top again presumably helped, but the recent increase not only coincides with a distinct dip in our form and the onset of the cold weather, but actually started immediately after Flisher was injured. And, whilst you can expect good gates against Tonbridge and Hendon, our second and third best gates have been against Enfield and Hornchurch!
And what now – after a near record breaking crowd sees us soundly beaten by a mid-table side, without even putting up much of a fight? Will all those people, and more, come back for Witham? Will this increase continue until we start having to shut fans out, or has the bubble been burst by the Enfield debacle? If the bubble hasn’t burst and this trend continues, we’ll hit capacity pretty soon. However, that’s a big ‘if’ – if there’s one thing this season has shown pretty conclusively, it’s that you can’t predict attendances!
But, what if this is a real trend – with continuing success comes a steady increase in gates? If we do go up this season, then presumably we’ll get even larger gates in the Conference - and, even with the main stand extension, the capacity will still only be around 2,600...